PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.62
Expected goals
2.371.1
Shots
19.413.2
Possession
50.4%44.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 1 to 1. FSV Mainz 05, 1 drawn, 3 to SV Werder Bremen. From this fixture's own record: SV Werder Bremen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

SV Werder Bremen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SV Werder Bremen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

19.4 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · SV Werder Bremen13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05SV Werder BremenBaseline
Shots19.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match15.8 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match16 shots/match16.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.2 fouls/matchFouls1. FSV Mainz 05 · SV Werder Bremen12.2 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05SV Werder BremenBaseline
Fouls12.2 fouls/match12.2 fouls/match10.6 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · SV Werder Bremen in 1 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 055 matchesSV Werder Bremen5 matches
2.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52 goals/match
2.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.1 xG/match
19.4 shots/match ▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match
5.8 shots/matchShots on target5/56 shots/match
50.4% ●Possession5/544.6%
5.6 corners/match ●Corners5/53.4 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FSV Mainz 05
1Draws
3SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1–1
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness15 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05SV Werder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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