PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Stade Brestois vs Nice · Ligue 1

vsPre-match analysis

Nice

LDLWW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
20.83
Expected goals
2.111.08
Shots
18.811.7
Possession
48%54.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: nice's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. The next-strongest reading is weaker: nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.83 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nice show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nice's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.8 shots/match ▲ShotsStade Brestois · Nice11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade BrestoisNiceBaseline
Shots18.8 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Nice in 4

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois6 matchesNice6 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1.17 goals/match
2.11 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.08 xG/match
18.8 shots/match ▲Shots6/611.7 shots/match
6.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63.5 shots/match
48%Possession6/6● 54.7%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners6/65.17 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls6/68.67 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Stade Brestois
2Draws
2Nice
Nice — Stade Brestois · Ligue 12–2
Stade Brestois — Nice · Ligue 14–1
Nice — Stade Brestois · Ligue 16–0
Stade Brestois — Nice · Ligue 10–1
Stade Brestois — Nice · Ligue 10–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness13 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisNice
CompetitionLigue 1
Head-to-headStade Brestois — Nice
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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