PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Lille vs Stade Brestois · Ligue 1

Lille

WDWW
vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.751.5
Expected goals
1.262.17
Shots
10.821.5
Possession
45%46.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: stade Brestois's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Stade Brestois show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Stade Brestois's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · Stade Brestois21.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleStade BrestoisBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match21.5 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against17.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Stade Brestois in 0 · 13 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille4 matchesStade Brestois4 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/41.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 2.17 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 21.5 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 7 shots/match
45%Possession4/4● 46.5%
1.75 corners/matchCorners4/4● 6.5 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/415.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Lille
3Draws
1Stade Brestois
Lille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–1
Stade Brestois — Lille · Ligue 13–3
Stade Brestois — Lille · Ligue 12–0
Lille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 13–1
Stade Brestois — Lille · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
Freshness34 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleStade Brestois
CompetitionLigue 1
Head-to-headLille — Stade Brestois
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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