Independiente Medellín
Primera A · 2026Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas · Primera A
Season
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
- Goals scored
- 1.45–1.41
- Expected goals
- 1.24–1.08
- Shots
- 14.7–14.9
- Possession
- 53.1%–53.4%
30-second read
What the record shows
The story here is recent context rather than season averages: once Caldas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: independiente Medellín's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.
Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season
moderateOnce Caldas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.8 goals/match | 1.41 goals/match | 1.22 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Independiente Medellín show a distinct attacking-volume record
moderateIndependiente Medellín's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.
Window: season
| Metric | Independiente Medellín | Once Caldas | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 14.7 shots/match | 14.9 shots/match | 12.5 shots/match |
| Shots against | 10.7 shots/match | 13.7 shots/match | 11.9 shots/match |
Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.
Both teams have elevated corners records
moderateEach team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.
Window: season
| Metric | Independiente Medellín | Once Caldas | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | 5.1 corners/match | 5.13 corners/match | 4.43 corners/match |
Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 2 · 5 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
Independiente Medellín / Once Caldas
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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