PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Vila Nova FC vs Novorizontino · Serie B

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.381.69
Expected goals
1.071.67
Shots
13.416.2
Possession
51.4%47.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: novorizontino's last-five shots average is above their season average. Alongside it: vila Nova FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Novorizontino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Novorizontino's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots23 shots/match16.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vila Nova FC have a visible home split

moderate

Vila Nova FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vila Nova FC favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Novorizontino in 9 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vila Nova FC32 matchesNovorizontino32 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 1.69 goals/match
0.97 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲ 0.84 goals/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals31/30▲ 1.67 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 16.2 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 5.73 shots/match
51.4% ●Possession30/3047.7%
4.93 corners/matchCorners30/30● 6.33 corners/match
15 fouls/matchFouls30/3013.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Vila Nova FC
1Draws
3Novorizontino
Novorizontino — Vila Nova FC · Serie B2–1
Novorizontino — Vila Nova FC · Serie B1–1
Vila Nova FC — Novorizontino · Serie B0–1
Novorizontino — Vila Nova FC · Serie B2–0
Vila Nova FC — Novorizontino · Serie B2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness11 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVila Nova FCNovorizontino
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headVila Nova FC — Novorizontino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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