PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior · Eredivisie

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.572.14
Expected goals
1.261.32
Shots
1611.3
Possession
54%40.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 2 to SC Heerenveen, 1 drawn, 2 to Excelsior. From this fixture's own record: SC Heerenveen have recorded the higher season possession share. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

SC Heerenveen have recorded the higher season possession share.

54% ●PossessionSC Heerenveen · Excelsior40.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC HeerenveenExcelsiorBaseline
Possession54%40.7%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Heerenveen favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Excelsior in 3 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Heerenveen7 matchesExcelsior7 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 2.14 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals7/71.32 xG/match
16 shots/match ▲Shots7/711.3 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/74.71 shots/match
54% ●Possession7/740.7%
5.14 corners/match ●Corners7/74.29 corners/match
8.43 fouls/matchFouls7/712 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2SC Heerenveen
1Draws
2Excelsior
Excelsior — SC Heerenveen · Eredivisie1–2
SC Heerenveen — Excelsior · Eredivisie2–1
Excelsior — SC Heerenveen · Eredivisie3–0
SC Heerenveen — Excelsior · Eredivisie0–3
SC Heerenveen — Excelsior · Eredivisie0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness27 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC HeerenveenExcelsior
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headSC Heerenveen — Excelsior
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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