PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Independiente Medellín 2–1 Jaguares de Córdoba · Primera A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Medellín won 2–1.

Shots
247
Shots on target
91
Expected goals
2.060.95
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Medellín beat Jaguares de Córdoba 2–1. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellín – Jaguares de Córdoba): shots 24–7, shots on target 9–1, expected goals 2.06–0.95, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Jaguares de Córdoba's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Jaguares de Córdoba's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.07 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Independiente Medellín show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Independiente Medellín's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsIndependiente Medellín · Jaguares de Córdoba11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellínJaguares de CórdobaBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match11 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Jaguares de Córdoba have a visible away split

moderate

Jaguares de Córdoba's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.31 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.31 shots/match11 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots7 shotsIndependiente Medellín 24 shots, Jaguares de Córdoba 7 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots1 shotIndependiente Medellín 9 shots, Jaguares de Córdoba 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.06 xG0.95 xGIndependiente Medellín 2.06 xG, Jaguares de Córdoba 0.95 xG
  • Possession55%45%Independiente Medellín 55%, Jaguares de Córdoba 45%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersIndependiente Medellín 7 corners, Jaguares de Córdoba 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls11 foulsIndependiente Medellín 9 fouls, Jaguares de Córdoba 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsIndependiente Medellín 2 cards, Jaguares de Córdoba 4 cards
  • Passes410 passes342 passesIndependiente Medellín 410 passes, Jaguares de Córdoba 342 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.3%84.2%Independiente Medellín 87.3%, Jaguares de Córdoba 84.2%
  • Shots inside box16 shots2 shotsIndependiente Medellín 16 shots, Jaguares de Córdoba 2 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks2 blocksIndependiente Medellín 7 blocks, Jaguares de Córdoba 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves7 savesIndependiente Medellín 0 saves, Jaguares de Córdoba 7 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesIndependiente Medellín 3 offsides, Jaguares de Córdoba 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Independiente Medellín
0Draws
0Jaguares de Córdoba
Jaguares de Córdoba — Independiente Medellín · Primera A1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Jaguares de Córdoba in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín28 matchesJaguares de Córdoba28 matches
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281.07 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.75 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/240.91 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots28/2811 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/283.64 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession28/2845.3%
5.11 corners/match ●Corners28/283.93 corners/match
3.91 cards/matchCards11/54.6 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 23 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínJaguares de Córdoba
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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