PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa · Premier League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.750.25
Expected goals
0.960.81
Shots
9.758.25
Possession
46.8%48%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 2 to Newcastle United, 1 drawn, 2 to Aston Villa. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Newcastle United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 0 · 13 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Newcastle United4 matchesAston Villa4 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/40.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 1.75 goals/match
0.96 xG/match ▲Expected goals4/40.81 xG/match
9.75 shots/match ▲Shots4/48.25 shots/match
3.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/41.5 shots/match
46.8%Possession4/4● 48%
4.5 corners/match ●Corners4/43.5 corners/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Newcastle United
1Draws
2Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Newcastle United · FA Cup1–3
Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2
Aston Villa — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0
Aston Villa — Newcastle United · Premier League4–1
Newcastle United — Aston Villa · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNewcastle UnitedAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headNewcastle United — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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