PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.521.41
Expected goals
1.121.06
Shots
12.812.5
Possession
47.1%50.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atlético Bucaramanga's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atlético Bucaramanga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Bucaramanga's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Santa Fe favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Bucaramanga in 3 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Santa Fe31 matchesAtlético Bucaramanga27 matches
1.52 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/271.41 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed31/271.04 goals/match
1.12 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/201.06 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots31/2712.5 shots/match
4.77 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/274.15 shots/match
47.1%Possession31/27● 50.1%
4.71 corners/match ●Corners31/273.96 corners/match
3.63 cards/matchCards8/45 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls31/2712.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Independiente Santa Fe
0Draws
0Atlético Bucaramanga
Atlético Bucaramanga — Independiente Santa Fe · Primera A1–2

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness33 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente Santa FeAtlético Bucaramanga
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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