PitchMath
Championship · 2026

West Bromwich Albion 0–1 Birmingham City · Championship

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Birmingham City won 0–1.

Shots
1415
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
1.052.54
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Birmingham City beat West Bromwich Albion 1–0. Recorded in this match (West Bromwich Albion – Birmingham City): shots 14–15, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 1.05–2.54, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

West Bromwich Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Bromwich Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

West Bromwich Albion have a visible home split

moderate

West Bromwich Albion's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

West Bromwich Albion show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

West Bromwich Albion's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsWest Bromwich Albion · Birmingham City13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWest Bromwich AlbionBirmingham CityBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots15 shotsWest Bromwich Albion 14 shots, Birmingham City 15 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shotsWest Bromwich Albion 2 shots, Birmingham City 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.05 xG2.54 xGWest Bromwich Albion 1.05 xG, Birmingham City 2.54 xG
  • Possession54%46%West Bromwich Albion 54%, Birmingham City 46%
  • Corners7 corners9 cornersWest Bromwich Albion 7 corners, Birmingham City 9 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls12 foulsWest Bromwich Albion 8 fouls, Birmingham City 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsWest Bromwich Albion 2 cards, Birmingham City 4 cards
  • Passes494 passes420 passesWest Bromwich Albion 494 passes, Birmingham City 420 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.6%79.8%West Bromwich Albion 84.6%, Birmingham City 79.8%
  • Shots inside box9 shots13 shotsWest Bromwich Albion 9 shots, Birmingham City 13 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks6 blocksWest Bromwich Albion 4 blocks, Birmingham City 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves2 savesWest Bromwich Albion 6 saves, Birmingham City 2 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesWest Bromwich Albion 0 offsides, Birmingham City 2 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ousmane Diakité · West Bromwich Albion · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Diakité · West Bromwich Albion · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNathaniel Phillips · West Bromwich Albion · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Gardner-Hickman · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBrayann Pereira · West Bromwich Albion · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 39′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRabby Nzingoula · West Bromwich Albion · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Price · West Bromwich Albion · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsaac Price · West Bromwich Albion · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Diakité · West Bromwich Albion · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCallum Styles · West Bromwich Albion · 32′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTomoki Iwata · Birmingham City · 7′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 1′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBrayann Pereira · West Bromwich Albion · 81′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 78′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTomoki Iwata · Birmingham City · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPhil Neumann · Birmingham City · 44′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDemarai Gray · Birmingham City · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPhil Neumann · Birmingham City · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTomoki Iwata · Birmingham City · 7′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFelix Horn Myhre · West Bromwich Albion · 28′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedBarney Stewart · West Bromwich Albion · 71′ · 0.13 xG · on targetAune Selland Heggebø · West Bromwich Albion · 9′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 58′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJhon Solís · Birmingham City · 55′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedChris Mepham · West Bromwich Albion · 68′ · 0.25 xG · on targetJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 6′ · 0.64 xG · on targetAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 41′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

West Bromwich Albion: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.04 xG. Birmingham City: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′August Priske · Birmingham City · 41′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: West Bromwich Albion 1.04 xG · Birmingham City 2.61 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

West Bromwich Albion4-4-2
  1. Max O'LearyG
  2. Nathaniel PhillipsD
  3. Callum StylesD
  4. George CampbellD
  5. Conor TownsendD
  6. Jayson MolumbyM
  7. Ousmane DiakitéM
  8. Rabby NzingoulaM
  9. Isaac PriceM
  10. Jimmy MorganF
  11. Aune Selland HeggebøF
Birmingham City4-2-3-1
  1. James BeadleG
  2. Christoph KlarerD
  3. Phil NeumannD
  4. Alex CochraneD
  5. Bright Osayi-SamuelD
  6. Jhon SolísM
  7. Tomoki IwataM
  8. Jay StansfieldM
  9. Carlos VicenteF
  10. August PriskeF
  11. Liam MillarF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1West Bromwich Albion
2Draws
2Birmingham City
Birmingham City — West Bromwich Albion · Championship0–0
West Bromwich Albion — Birmingham City · Championship1–1
West Bromwich Albion — Birmingham City · Championship1–0
Birmingham City — West Bromwich Albion · Championship3–1
Birmingham City — West Bromwich Albion · Championship2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: West Bromwich Albion favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Birmingham City in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

West Bromwich Albion9 matchesBirmingham City9 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.44 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.22 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.76 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 13.6 shots/match
3.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 4.78 shots/match
53% ●Possession9/948.1%
5.11 corners/matchCorners9/9● 6.33 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls9/912.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWest Bromwich AlbionBirmingham City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headWest Bromwich Albion — Birmingham City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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