PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Derby County 1–1 Wrexham · Championship

1–1Full-time analysis

Wrexham

WDDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Derby County and Wrexham drew 1–1.

Shots
1013
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.521.3
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Derby County and Wrexham drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Derby County – Wrexham): shots 10–13, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.52–1.3, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Derby County's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Derby County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots13 shotsDerby County 10 shots, Wrexham 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsDerby County 4 shots, Wrexham 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.52 xG1.3 xGDerby County 0.52 xG, Wrexham 1.3 xG
  • Possession45%55%Derby County 45%, Wrexham 55%
  • Corners1 corner8 cornersDerby County 1 corner, Wrexham 8 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls6 foulsDerby County 10 fouls, Wrexham 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsDerby County 3 cards, Wrexham 2 cards
  • Passes397 passes470 passesDerby County 397 passes, Wrexham 470 passes
  • Pass accuracy76.3%80.2%Derby County 76.3%, Wrexham 80.2%
  • Shots inside box4 shots10 shotsDerby County 4 shots, Wrexham 10 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block5 blocksDerby County 1 block, Wrexham 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves3 savesDerby County 2 saves, Wrexham 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside3 offsidesDerby County 1 offside, Wrexham 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Sondre LangåsYellow card · Derby County
  2. 9′Sammie SzmodicsGoal · Derby County
  3. Half-time
  4. 52′Ryan HedgesYellow card · Derby County
  5. 71′Oliver RathboneYellow card · Wrexham
  6. 74′Alex MowattYellow card · Derby County
  7. 88′Oliver RathboneGoal · Wrexham
  8. 90′Kieffer MooreYellow card · Wrexham
  9. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 15′Wrexham · 1 player changeOliver Rathbone
  • 64′Wrexham · 2 player changesSam Smith · Daniel Imray
  • 72′Derby County · 2 player changesRhian Brewster · Henrik Wendel Meister
  • 84′Derby County · 2 player changesLars-Jørgen Salvesen · Oscar Fraulo
  • 85′Wrexham · 2 player changesRyan Longman · George Dobson

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Derby County4-4-2
  1. Josh VickersG
  2. Sondre LangåsD
  3. Joe WardD
  4. Dion SandersonD
  5. Corey Blackett-TaylorD
  6. David OzohM
  7. Bobby ClarkM
  8. Mohammed FuseiniM
  9. Alex MowattM
  10. Carlton MorrisF
  11. Sammie SzmodicsF
Wrexham3-4-2-1
  1. Anthony PattersonG
  2. Callum DoyleD
  3. Jacques EkomiéD
  4. Dominic HyamD
  5. Issa KaboréD
  6. Zak VynerD
  7. Ben WhitemanM
  8. Matty JamesM
  9. Josh WindassF
  10. Callum O'HareF
  11. Kieffer MooreF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Derby County
1Draws
1Wrexham
Derby County — Wrexham · Championship1–2
Wrexham — Derby County · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Derby County favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Wrexham in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Derby County9 matchesWrexham9 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.11 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.44 goals/match
0.87 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.07 xG/match
12 shots/match ▲Shots9/911.1 shots/match
3.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/93.44 shots/match
48.9%Possession9/9● 49%
5.78 corners/match ●Corners9/95.11 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls9/910.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDerby CountyWrexham
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headDerby County — Wrexham
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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