PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Stoke City · Championship

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Stoke City won 1–2.

Shots
309
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
3.130.74
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stoke City beat Bolton Wanderers 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bolton Wanderers – Stoke City): shots 30–9, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 3.13–0.74, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stoke City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stoke City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bolton Wanderers have a visible home split

moderate

Bolton Wanderers's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bolton Wanderers show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bolton Wanderers's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsBolton Wanderers · Stoke City11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBolton WanderersStoke CityBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match15.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots30 shots9 shotsBolton Wanderers 30 shots, Stoke City 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsBolton Wanderers 5 shots, Stoke City 4 shots
  • Expected goals3.13 xG0.74 xGBolton Wanderers 3.13 xG, Stoke City 0.74 xG
  • Possession68%32%Bolton Wanderers 68%, Stoke City 32%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersBolton Wanderers 10 corners, Stoke City 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls9 foulsBolton Wanderers 8 fouls, Stoke City 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardBolton Wanderers 1 card, Stoke City 1 card
  • Passes547 passes269 passesBolton Wanderers 547 passes, Stoke City 269 passes
  • Pass accuracy91.6%68.8%Bolton Wanderers 91.6%, Stoke City 68.8%
  • Shots inside box23 shots6 shotsBolton Wanderers 23 shots, Stoke City 6 shots
  • Blocked shots11 blocks1 blockBolton Wanderers 11 blocks, Stoke City 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves4 savesBolton Wanderers 2 saves, Stoke City 4 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesBolton Wanderers 0 offsides, Stoke City 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 20′Maksym TalovierovRed card · Stoke City
  2. 34′Jack McGlynnYellow card · Stoke City
  3. 45′Lamine CisséGoal · Stoke City
  4. Half-time
  5. 62′Ben WilmotGoal · Stoke City
  6. 72′Max ConwayYellow card · Bolton Wanderers
  7. 90′Theo BairGoal · Bolton Wanderers
  8. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Stoke City · 1 player changeLuca Bombino
  • 46′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeAtsuki Ito
  • 56′Bolton Wanderers · 2 player changesJayden Nelson · Samuel Iling Junior
  • 63′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeRyan Hardie
  • 69′Stoke City · 3 player changesJunior Tchamadeu · George Hirst · Bosun Lawal
  • 82′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeTheo Bair

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Bolton Wanderers4-2-3-1
  1. Gavin BazunuG
  2. Ben DaviesD
  3. Eoin ToalD
  4. Gaizka LarrazabalD
  5. Max ConwayD
  6. Josh SheehanM
  7. Atsuki ItoM
  8. Ethan ErhahonM
  9. Sam DalbyF
  10. Thierry GaleF
  11. Samuel Iling JuniorF
Stoke City3-4-2-1
  1. Viktor JohanssonG
  2. Ben JohnsonD
  3. Luke GrahamD
  4. Ben WilmotD
  5. Eric BocatD
  6. Maksym TalovierovD
  7. Ben PearsonM
  8. Djibril SoumaréM
  9. Jack McGlynnF
  10. George HirstF
  11. Sam GallagherF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bolton Wanderers favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Stoke City in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bolton Wanderers9 matchesStoke City9 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/90.91 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots9/911.6 shots/match
4.78 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/94.11 shots/match
53.1% ●Possession9/944.9%
5.89 corners/match ●Corners9/94.44 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls9/914.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBolton WanderersStoke City
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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