PitchMath
League One · 2026

Notts County 1–2 Oxford United · League One

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Oxford United won 1–2.

Shots
1013
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.621.19
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Oxford United beat Notts County 2–1. Recorded in this match (Notts County – Oxford United): shots 10–13, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.62–1.19, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Notts County's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Notts County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsNotts County · Oxford United14.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNotts CountyOxford UnitedBaseline
Fouls14.3 fouls/match14.3 fouls/match12.4 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Oxford United have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.8%PossessionNotts County · Oxford United● 56.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNotts CountyOxford UnitedBaseline
Possession45.8%56.9%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots13 shotsNotts County 10 shots, Oxford United 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsNotts County 3 shots, Oxford United 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.62 xG1.19 xGNotts County 0.62 xG, Oxford United 1.19 xG
  • Possession50%50%Notts County 50%, Oxford United 50%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersNotts County 5 corners, Oxford United 4 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls11 foulsNotts County 18 fouls, Oxford United 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards6 cards3 cardsNotts County 6 cards, Oxford United 3 cards
  • Passes399 passes406 passesNotts County 399 passes, Oxford United 406 passes
  • Pass accuracy74.7%77.6%Notts County 74.7%, Oxford United 77.6%
  • Shots inside box3 shots5 shotsNotts County 3 shots, Oxford United 5 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks4 blocksNotts County 3 blocks, Oxford United 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves2 savesNotts County 3 saves, Oxford United 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesNotts County 2 offsides, Oxford United 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Callum Roberts · Notts County · 55′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPeter Kioso · Oxford United · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeo Snowden · Oxford United · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJames Gibbons · Notts County · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuka Lynch · Oxford United · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLouie Sibley · Oxford United · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTyler Goodrham · Oxford United · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRory Finneran · Notts County · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 78′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSiriki Dembélé · Oxford United · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNick Tsaroulla · Notts County · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 88′ · 0.06 xG · goalCallum Roberts · Notts County · 6′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCallum Roberts · Notts County · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLouie Sibley · Oxford United · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJacob Bedeau · Notts County · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRory Finneran · Notts County · 90′ · 0.08 xG · goalDaniel Kanu · Notts County · 69′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLuka Smyth · Notts County · 84′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGatlin O'Donkor · Oxford United · 84′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedTyler Goodrham · Oxford United · 5′ · 0.28 xG · on targetMark Harris · Oxford United · 18′ · 0.36 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Notts County: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.63 xG. Oxford United: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Rory Finneran · Notts County · 90′Mark Harris · Oxford United · 18′Cameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Notts County 0.63 xG · Oxford United 1.19 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Notts County3-4-2-1
  1. James BelshawG
  2. James GibbonsD
  3. Rod McDonaldD
  4. Jacob BedeauD
  5. Lucas NessD
  6. Ishé Samuels-SmithD
  7. Oliver CooperM
  8. Matt PalmerM
  9. Callum RobertsF
  10. Daniel KanuF
  11. Conor GrantF

Substitutes

  • Nick Tsaroulla
  • Max Sanders
  • Rosaire Longelo
  • Darius Lipsiuc
  • Jack Evans
  • Rory Finneran
  • Luka Smyth
Oxford United4-2-3-1
  1. Jamie CummingG
  2. Ciaron BrownD
  3. Michał HelikD
  4. Jack CurrieD
  5. Peter KiosoD
  6. Cameron BrannaganM
  7. Tyler GoodrhamM
  8. Louie SibleyM
  9. Mark HarrisF
  10. Siriki DembéléF
  11. Mo MissangaF

Substitutes

  • Simon Eastwood
  • Sam Long
  • Brodie Spencer
  • Kai Andrews
  • Gatlin O'Donkor
  • Luka Lynch
  • Leo Snowden

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Notts County favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Oxford United in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Notts County8 matchesOxford United7 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored8/7▲ 2.14 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/7▲ 1.14 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals8/7▲ 1.29 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots8/711.4 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target8/7▲ 4.57 shots/match
45.8%Possession8/7● 56.9%
4.5 corners/match ●Corners8/74.29 corners/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls8/714.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNotts CountyOxford United
CompetitionLeague One
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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