PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Fortaleza 2–2 Athletic Club · Serie B

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza and Athletic Club drew 2–2.

Shots
166
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
2.151
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza and Athletic Club drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – Athletic Club): shots 16–6, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 2.15–1, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletic Club have a visible away split

moderate

Athletic Club's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.6 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots6 shotsFortaleza 16 shots, Athletic Club 6 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsFortaleza 7 shots, Athletic Club 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.15 xG1 xGFortaleza 2.15 xG, Athletic Club 1 xG
  • Possession68%32%Fortaleza 68%, Athletic Club 32%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerFortaleza 5 corners, Athletic Club 1 corner
  • Fouls15 fouls16 foulsFortaleza 15 fouls, Athletic Club 16 fouls
  • Passes615 passes293 passesFortaleza 615 passes, Athletic Club 293 passes
  • Pass accuracy89.1%74.1%Fortaleza 89.1%, Athletic Club 74.1%
  • Shots inside box7 shots3 shotsFortaleza 7 shots, Athletic Club 3 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks0 blocksFortaleza 3 blocks, Athletic Club 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save5 savesFortaleza 1 save, Athletic Club 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesFortaleza 2 offsides, Athletic Club 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza
0Draws
1Athletic Club
Athletic Club — Fortaleza · Serie B1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza30 matchesAthletic Club30 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored30/301.2 goals/match
0.87 goals/match ▲Goals allowed30/301.1 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.05 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots29/3011.1 shots/match
4.31 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/303.3 shots/match
49.6% ●Possession29/3043.9%
5.34 corners/match ●Corners29/304.1 corners/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls29/3015 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 28 Sept 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaAthletic Club
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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