Fortaleza vs Athletic Club — Stats & Match Analysis

Serie B · 2026Sat, 26 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fortaleza

WDWWD

vsPre-match analysis

Athletic Club

LLWLW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored: 1.111.18
Expected goals: 1.251.05
Shots: 14.411.1
Possession: 48.7%43.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: athletic Club's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.18 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletic Club have a visible away split

moderate

Athletic Club's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.79 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.79 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 1 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza28 matchesAthletic Club28 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 1.18 goals/match

0.82 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.07 goals/match

1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/281.05 xG/match

14.4 shots/match ▲Shots27/2811.1 shots/match

4.3 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/283.29 shots/match

48.7% ●Possession27/2843.8%

5.48 corners/match ●Corners27/284.29 corners/match

14.8 fouls/matchFouls27/2814.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza

0Draws

1Athletic Club

30 May 2026Athletic Club — Fortaleza · Serie B1–0

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness13 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match ranking xG per match ranking Shots per match ranking

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Season

What the record shows