PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Sampaio Correa 1–2 Tombense · Serie B

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Tombense won 1–2.

Shots
1211
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
0.721.27
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Tombense beat Sampaio Corrêa 2–1. Recorded in this match (Sampaio Corrêa – Tombense): shots 12–11, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 0.72–1.27, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sampaio Corrêa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sampaio Corrêa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sampaio Corrêa have a visible home split

moderate

Sampaio Corrêa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots11 shotsSampaio Correa 12 shots, Tombense 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsSampaio Correa 4 shots, Tombense 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.72 xG1.27 xGSampaio Correa 0.72 xG, Tombense 1.27 xG
  • Possession39%61%Sampaio Correa 39%, Tombense 61%
  • Corners3 corners1 cornerSampaio Correa 3 corners, Tombense 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls16 foulsSampaio Correa 11 fouls, Tombense 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Sampaio Correa
0Draws
0Tombense
Tombense — Sampaio Correa · Serie B0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sampaio Correa favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Tombense in 6

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sampaio Correa35 matchesTombense35 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲ 1.06 goals/match
1.06 goals/match ▲Goals allowed35/351.31 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals33/34▲ 1.32 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots33/34▲ 14 shots/match
3.15 shots/matchShots on target33/34▲ 4.12 shots/match
49.5%Possession33/34● 50.6%
4.55 corners/matchCorners33/34● 5.41 corners/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls33/3413.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSampaio CorreaTombense
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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