PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Londrina 1–3 São Bernardo · Serie B

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Bernardo won 1–3.

Shots
138
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.670.69
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

São Bernardo beat Londrina 3–1. Recorded in this match (Londrina – São Bernardo): shots 13–8, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.67–0.69, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Londrina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Londrina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shotsLondrina 13 shots, São Bernardo 8 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsLondrina 1 shot, São Bernardo 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.67 xG0.69 xGLondrina 0.67 xG, São Bernardo 0.69 xG
  • Possession53%47%Londrina 53%, São Bernardo 47%
  • Corners9 corners2 cornersLondrina 9 corners, São Bernardo 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls6 foulsLondrina 13 fouls, São Bernardo 6 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Londrina favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · São Bernardo in 4 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Londrina8 matchesSão Bernardo8 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.75 goals/match
0.85 xG/matchExpected goals3/4▲ 0.98 xG/match
9 shots/matchShots3/4▲ 12.5 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/4▲ 4 shots/match
48%Possession3/4● 48.5%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners3/44.75 corners/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls3/48.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 13 May 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLondrinaSão Bernardo
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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