PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Novorizontino 1–0 Botafogo-SP · Serie B

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Novorizontino won 1–0.

Shots
96
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
1.040.2
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Novorizontino beat Botafogo-SP 1–0. Recorded in this match (Novorizontino – Botafogo-SP): shots 9–6, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 1.04–0.2, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo-SP's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots6 shotsNovorizontino 9 shots, Botafogo-SP 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotNovorizontino 3 shots, Botafogo-SP 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.04 xG0.2 xGNovorizontino 1.04 xG, Botafogo-SP 0.2 xG
  • Possession46%54%Novorizontino 46%, Botafogo-SP 54%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerNovorizontino 5 corners, Botafogo-SP 1 corner
  • Fouls17 fouls15 foulsNovorizontino 17 fouls, Botafogo-SP 15 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Novorizontino
2Draws
1Botafogo-SP
Novorizontino — Botafogo-SP · Serie B1–1
Botafogo-SP — Novorizontino · Serie B0–0
Novorizontino — Botafogo-SP · Serie B2–0
Botafogo-SP — Novorizontino · Serie B0–1
Botafogo-SP — Novorizontino · Serie B2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Novorizontino favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Botafogo-SP in 1 · 8 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Novorizontino8 matchesBotafogo-SP8 matches
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.25 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1 goal/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals4/40.99 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots4/410.8 shots/match
5.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/43 shots/match
49.5% ●Possession4/444.8%
6.5 corners/match ●Corners4/45.25 corners/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 11 May 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNovorizontinoBotafogo-SP
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headNovorizontino — Botafogo-SP
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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