PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Fortaleza 2–1 Sport Recife · Serie B

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 2–1.

Shots
1216
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.282.24
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Sport Recife 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – Sport Recife): shots 12–16, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.28–2.24, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots16 shotsFortaleza 12 shots, Sport Recife 16 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsFortaleza 7 shots, Sport Recife 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG2.24 xGFortaleza 1.28 xG, Sport Recife 2.24 xG
  • Possession40%60%Fortaleza 40%, Sport Recife 60%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersFortaleza 2 corners, Sport Recife 6 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls9 foulsFortaleza 20 fouls, Sport Recife 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fortaleza
1Draws
0Sport Recife
Fortaleza — Sport Recife · Serie A1–0
Sport Recife — Fortaleza · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Sport Recife in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza15 matchesSport Recife15 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.2 goals/match
1.07 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 0.73 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲ 1.41 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots7/614 shots/match
5.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/64.33 shots/match
47.4%Possession7/6● 53.7%
5 corners/matchCorners7/6● 6.33 corners/match
16.6 fouls/matchFouls7/611.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 29 Jun 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaSport Recife
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headFortaleza — Sport Recife
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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