PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Vila Nova FC 2–1 São Bernardo · Serie B

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vila Nova FC won 2–1.

Shots
169
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
20.54
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vila Nova FC beat São Bernardo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Vila Nova FC – São Bernardo): shots 16–9, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 2–0.54, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

São Bernardo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

São Bernardo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots9 shotsVila Nova FC 16 shots, São Bernardo 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsVila Nova FC 5 shots, São Bernardo 6 shots
  • Expected goals2 xG0.54 xGVila Nova FC 2 xG, São Bernardo 0.54 xG
  • Possession47%53%Vila Nova FC 47%, São Bernardo 53%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersVila Nova FC 6 corners, São Bernardo 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsVila Nova FC 10 fouls, São Bernardo 11 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vila Nova FC favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · São Bernardo in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vila Nova FC16 matchesSão Bernardo16 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.31 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 0.88 goals/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71 xG/match
14.6 shots/match ▲Shots7/712.3 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/74.57 shots/match
53.4% ●Possession7/749.3%
4.29 corners/match ●Corners7/73.71 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 7 Jul 2026, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVila Nova FCSão Bernardo
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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