PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Zenit St. Petersburg 2–1 Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Zenit St. Petersburg won 2–1.

Shots
1814
Shots on target
44
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Zenit St. Petersburg beat Lokomotiv Moscow 2–1. Recorded in this match (Zenit St. Petersburg – Lokomotiv Moscow): shots 18–14, shots on target 4–4, possession 62%–38%, corners 5–4. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Zenit St. Petersburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Zenit St. Petersburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Zenit St. Petersburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Zenit St. Petersburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match ▲ShotsZenit St. Petersburg · Lokomotiv Moscow13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricZenit St. PetersburgLokomotiv MoscowBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against11.8 shots/match17.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Zenit St. Petersburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.9% ●PossessionZenit St. Petersburg · Lokomotiv Moscow51%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricZenit St. PetersburgLokomotiv MoscowBaseline
Possession60.9%51%48.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots14 shotsZenit St. Petersburg 18 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsZenit St. Petersburg 4 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 4 shots
  • Possession62%38%Zenit St. Petersburg 62%, Lokomotiv Moscow 38%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersZenit St. Petersburg 5 corners, Lokomotiv Moscow 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls24 foulsZenit St. Petersburg 9 fouls, Lokomotiv Moscow 24 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsZenit St. Petersburg 1 card, Lokomotiv Moscow 2 cards
  • Passes516 passes326 passesZenit St. Petersburg 516 passes, Lokomotiv Moscow 326 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.7%78.5%Zenit St. Petersburg 85.7%, Lokomotiv Moscow 78.5%
  • Shots inside box15 shots7 shotsZenit St. Petersburg 15 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 7 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks4 blocksZenit St. Petersburg 4 blocks, Lokomotiv Moscow 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves2 savesZenit St. Petersburg 3 saves, Lokomotiv Moscow 2 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideZenit St. Petersburg 3 offsides, Lokomotiv Moscow 1 offside

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Maksim Glushenkov · Zenit St. Petersburg · 3′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedKevin Andrade · Zenit St. Petersburg · 8′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Sobolev · Zenit St. Petersburg · 11′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedLuiz Henrique · Zenit St. Petersburg · 24′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedNikolay Komlichenko · Lokomotiv Moscow · 34′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedZelimkhan Bakaev · Lokomotiv Moscow · 50′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedSergey Babkin · Lokomotiv Moscow · 50′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Sobolev · Zenit St. Petersburg · 54′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedNikolay Komlichenko · Lokomotiv Moscow · 61′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedJhon Jhon · Zenit St. Petersburg · 75′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Rudenko · Lokomotiv Moscow · 75′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedMaksim Nenakhov · Lokomotiv Moscow · 78′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedSergey Babkin · Lokomotiv Moscow · 87′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedSergey Pinyaev · Lokomotiv Moscow · 90′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedNikolay Komlichenko · Lokomotiv Moscow · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Sobolev · Zenit St. Petersburg · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNikolay Titkov · Lokomotiv Moscow · 50′ · 0.01 xG · on targetZelimkhan Bakaev · Lokomotiv Moscow · 54′ · 0.01 xG · on targetKevin Andrade · Zenit St. Petersburg · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSergey Pinyaev · Lokomotiv Moscow · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMaksim Glushenkov · Zenit St. Petersburg · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Sobolev · Zenit St. Petersburg · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNuraly Alip · Zenit St. Petersburg · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Sobolev · Zenit St. Petersburg · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaksim Glushenkov · Zenit St. Petersburg · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaksim Glushenkov · Zenit St. Petersburg · 45′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAleksandr Rudenko · Lokomotiv Moscow · 18′ · 0.10 xG · goalLuiz Henrique · Zenit St. Petersburg · 70′ · 0.10 xG · goalKevin Andrade · Zenit St. Petersburg · 47′ · 0.11 xG · goalMaksim Glushenkov · Zenit St. Petersburg · 51′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAleksandr Rudenko · Lokomotiv Moscow · 64′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Zenit St. Petersburg: 17 shots, 4 on target, 0.62 xG. Lokomotiv Moscow: 14 shots, 4 on target, 0.26 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Kevin Andrade · Zenit St. Petersburg · 47′Luiz Henrique · Zenit St. Petersburg · 70′Aleksandr Rudenko · Lokomotiv Moscow · 18′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Zenit St. Petersburg 0.62 xG · Lokomotiv Moscow 0.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Zenit St. Petersburg
3Draws
1Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow — Zenit St. Petersburg · Premier League0–0
Zenit St. Petersburg — Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League2–0
Lokomotiv Moscow — Zenit St. Petersburg · Premier League1–1
Zenit St. Petersburg — Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League1–1
Lokomotiv Moscow — Zenit St. Petersburg · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Zenit St. Petersburg favored in 8 of 9 directional metrics · Lokomotiv Moscow in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Zenit St. Petersburg8 matchesLokomotiv Moscow8 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
16.3 shots/match ▲Shots8/813.3 shots/match
5.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/82.88 shots/match
60.9% ●Possession8/851%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners8/83.13 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/815.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 17:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsZenit St. PetersburgLokomotiv Moscow
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headZenit St. Petersburg — Lokomotiv Moscow
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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