PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Baltika Kaliningrad 2–3 Zenit St. Petersburg · Premier League

2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Zenit St. Petersburg won 2–3.

Shots
811
Shots on target
48
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Zenit St. Petersburg beat Baltika Kaliningrad 3–2. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Zenit St. Petersburg): shots 8–11, shots on target 4–8, possession 41%–59%, corners 10–8. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Zenit St. Petersburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Zenit St. Petersburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.11 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.22 corners/matchCornersBaltika Kaliningrad · Zenit St. Petersburg● 5.78 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradZenit St. PetersburgBaseline
Corners5.22 corners/match5.78 corners/match4.29 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Zenit St. Petersburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.9%PossessionBaltika Kaliningrad · Zenit St. Petersburg● 60.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradZenit St. PetersburgBaseline
Possession39.9%60.7%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots11 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 8 shots, Zenit St. Petersburg 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 4 shots, Zenit St. Petersburg 8 shots
  • Possession41%59%Baltika Kaliningrad 41%, Zenit St. Petersburg 59%
  • Corners10 corners8 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 10 corners, Zenit St. Petersburg 8 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls7 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 16 fouls, Zenit St. Petersburg 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsBaltika Kaliningrad 2 cards, Zenit St. Petersburg 0 cards
  • Passes327 passes498 passesBaltika Kaliningrad 327 passes, Zenit St. Petersburg 498 passes
  • Pass accuracy72.2%80.5%Baltika Kaliningrad 72.2%, Zenit St. Petersburg 80.5%
  • Shots inside box7 shots5 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 7 shots, Zenit St. Petersburg 5 shots
  • Blocked shots0 blocks1 blockBaltika Kaliningrad 0 blocks, Zenit St. Petersburg 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves2 savesBaltika Kaliningrad 5 saves, Zenit St. Petersburg 2 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideBaltika Kaliningrad 0 offsides, Zenit St. Petersburg 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
1Draws
4Zenit St. Petersburg
Baltika Kaliningrad — Zenit St. Petersburg · Russian Cup0–1
Zenit St. Petersburg — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–0
Baltika Kaliningrad — Zenit St. Petersburg · Premier League0–0
Zenit St. Petersburg — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–0
Baltika Kaliningrad — Zenit St. Petersburg · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Zenit St. Petersburg in 5 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad9 matchesZenit St. Petersburg9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 2.11 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1 goal/match
12.9 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 15.7 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 5.56 shots/match
39.9%Possession9/9● 60.7%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/9● 5.78 corners/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls9/910.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 16 Sept 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradZenit St. Petersburg
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headBaltika Kaliningrad — Zenit St. Petersburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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