PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Fortaleza CEIF 2–2 Deportes Tolima · Primera A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza CEIF and Deportes Tolima drew 2–2.

Shots
147
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
0.670.26
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza CEIF and Deportes Tolima drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza CEIF – Deportes Tolima): shots 14–7, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 0.67–0.26, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza CEIF's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza CEIF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportes Tolima have a visible away split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots7 shotsFortaleza CEIF 14 shots, Deportes Tolima 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotFortaleza CEIF 6 shots, Deportes Tolima 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.67 xG0.26 xGFortaleza CEIF 0.67 xG, Deportes Tolima 0.26 xG
  • Possession57%43%Fortaleza CEIF 57%, Deportes Tolima 43%
  • Corners8 corners0 cornersFortaleza CEIF 8 corners, Deportes Tolima 0 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls15 foulsFortaleza CEIF 16 fouls, Deportes Tolima 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards6 cardsFortaleza CEIF 5 cards, Deportes Tolima 6 cards
  • Passes443 passes349 passesFortaleza CEIF 443 passes, Deportes Tolima 349 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.3%77.7%Fortaleza CEIF 85.3%, Deportes Tolima 77.7%
  • Shots inside box5 shots2 shotsFortaleza CEIF 5 shots, Deportes Tolima 2 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks0 blocksFortaleza CEIF 2 blocks, Deportes Tolima 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves4 savesFortaleza CEIF 0 saves, Deportes Tolima 4 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideFortaleza CEIF 2 offsides, Deportes Tolima 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza CEIF
0Draws
1Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima — Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A2–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza CEIF favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza CEIF30 matchesDeportes Tolima36 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored30/36▲ 1.28 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed30/36▲ 0.94 goals/match
0.82 xG/matchExpected goals26/29▲ 1.3 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots30/34▲ 13.8 shots/match
3.77 shots/matchShots on target30/34▲ 4.71 shots/match
52.7%Possession30/34● 55.7%
4.23 corners/matchCorners30/34● 5 corners/match
3.82 cards/matchCards11/103.9 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls30/3410.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples30 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 28 Sept 2026, 03:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortaleza CEIFDeportes Tolima
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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