PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Independiente Medellín 3–2 Deportivo Pasto · Primera A

3–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Medellín won 3–2.

Shots
812
Shots on target
34
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Medellín beat Deportivo Pasto 3–2. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellín – Deportivo Pasto): shots 8–12, shots on target 3–4, possession 45%–55%, corners 4–4. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Independiente Medellín have a visible home split

moderate

Independiente Medellín's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Deportivo Pasto show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Deportivo Pasto's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsIndependiente Medellín · Deportivo Pasto12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellínDeportivo PastoBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match12 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots12 shotsIndependiente Medellín 8 shots, Deportivo Pasto 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsIndependiente Medellín 3 shots, Deportivo Pasto 4 shots
  • Possession45%55%Independiente Medellín 45%, Deportivo Pasto 55%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersIndependiente Medellín 4 corners, Deportivo Pasto 4 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls12 foulsIndependiente Medellín 18 fouls, Deportivo Pasto 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Independiente Medellín
0Draws
1Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto — Independiente Medellín · Primera A1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Pasto in 2 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín20 matchesDeportivo Pasto22 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored20/221.41 goals/match
1.3 goals/match ▲Goals allowed20/221.41 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals15/161.15 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots20/2212 shots/match
4.7 shots/match ▲Shots on target20/223.86 shots/match
52.9% ●Possession20/2251%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners20/224.05 corners/match
4.38 cards/matchCards8/94.56 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls20/2211.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples20 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jul 2026, 01:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínDeportivo Pasto
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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