PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Deportes Tolima 2–1 Junior Barranquilla · Primera A

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportes Tolima won 2–1.

Shots
1014
Shots on target
43
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportes Tolima beat Junior Barranquilla 2–1. Recorded in this match (Deportes Tolima – Junior Barranquilla): shots 10–14, shots on target 4–3, possession 40%–60%, corners 1–7. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Junior Barranquilla's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Junior Barranquilla's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.5 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportes Tolima have a visible home split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match13 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots14 shotsDeportes Tolima 10 shots, Junior Barranquilla 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsDeportes Tolima 4 shots, Junior Barranquilla 3 shots
  • Possession40%60%Deportes Tolima 40%, Junior Barranquilla 60%
  • Corners1 corner7 cornersDeportes Tolima 1 corner, Junior Barranquilla 7 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls8 foulsDeportes Tolima 14 fouls, Junior Barranquilla 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Deportes Tolima
0Draws
0Junior Barranquilla
Junior Barranquilla — Deportes Tolima · Primera A0–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportes Tolima favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Junior Barranquilla in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportes Tolima24 matchesJunior Barranquilla26 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored24/26▲ 1.5 goals/match
0.92 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/261.15 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/231.14 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots24/2513 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target24/254.56 shots/match
54.4% ●Possession24/2552.2%
4.67 corners/matchCorners24/25● 5.04 corners/match
3.88 cards/matchCards8/42.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls24/2512.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jul 2026, 05:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportes TolimaJunior Barranquilla
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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