PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Zenit St. Petersburg 1–0 Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Zenit St. Petersburg won 1–0.

Shots
1710
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
3.150.25
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Zenit St. Petersburg beat Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0. Recorded in this match (Zenit St. Petersburg – Baltika Kaliningrad): shots 17–10, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 3.15–0.25, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.64 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Baltika Kaliningrad show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsZenit St. Petersburg · Baltika Kaliningrad10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricZenit St. PetersburgBaltika KaliningradBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against8.59 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Zenit St. Petersburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

63.5% ●PossessionZenit St. Petersburg · Baltika Kaliningrad45.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricZenit St. PetersburgBaltika KaliningradBaseline
Possession63.5%45.7%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots10 shotsZenit St. Petersburg 17 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 10 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsZenit St. Petersburg 8 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 3 shots
  • Expected goals3.15 xG0.25 xGZenit St. Petersburg 3.15 xG, Baltika Kaliningrad 0.25 xG
  • Possession65%35%Zenit St. Petersburg 65%, Baltika Kaliningrad 35%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersZenit St. Petersburg 10 corners, Baltika Kaliningrad 4 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls11 foulsZenit St. Petersburg 5 fouls, Baltika Kaliningrad 11 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Zenit St. Petersburg
0Draws
0Baltika Kaliningrad
Baltika Kaliningrad — Zenit St. Petersburg · Premier League0–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Zenit St. Petersburg favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Baltika Kaliningrad in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Zenit St. Petersburg22 matchesBaltika Kaliningrad22 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/220.64 goals/match
0.86 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/221.18 goals/match
1.68 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/221.1 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots22/2210.8 shots/match
4.77 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/223.18 shots/match
63.5% ●Possession22/2245.7%
6.82 corners/match ●Corners22/224.64 corners/match
8.77 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsZenit St. PetersburgBaltika Kaliningrad
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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