PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Burnley 1–1 Derby County · Championship

Burnley

LDLDL
1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Burnley and Derby County drew 1–1.

Shots
616
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
0.491.19
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Burnley and Derby County drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Burnley – Derby County): shots 6–16, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 0.49–1.19, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Burnley have a visible home split

weak

Burnley's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Burnley, Derby County.

7 days ▲Rest daysBurnley · Derby County7.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBurnleyDerby CountyBaseline
Rest days7 days7.1 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots16 shotsBurnley 6 shots, Derby County 16 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsBurnley 2 shots, Derby County 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.49 xG1.19 xGBurnley 0.49 xG, Derby County 1.19 xG
  • Possession52%48%Burnley 52%, Derby County 48%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersBurnley 4 corners, Derby County 6 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsBurnley 9 fouls, Derby County 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards2 cardsBurnley 4 cards, Derby County 2 cards
  • Passes430 passes384 passesBurnley 430 passes, Derby County 384 passes
  • Pass accuracy79.5%80.7%Burnley 79.5%, Derby County 80.7%
  • Shots inside box4 shots9 shotsBurnley 4 shots, Derby County 9 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks7 blocksBurnley 3 blocks, Derby County 7 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves1 saveBurnley 3 saves, Derby County 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides4 offsidesBurnley 3 offsides, Derby County 4 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sammie Szmodics · Derby County · 47′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedBobby Clark · Derby County · 77′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedReo Hatate · Burnley · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Fuseini · Derby County · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavid Ozoh · Derby County · 46′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDavid Ozoh · Derby County · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBobby Clark · Derby County · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoe Ward · Derby County · 79′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMohammed Fuseini · Derby County · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 70′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Fuseini · Derby County · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalRyan Hedges · Derby County · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Burnley · 71′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Burnley · 71′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRyan Hedges · Derby County · 60′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Burnley · 70′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBobby Clark · Derby County · 44′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 34′ · 0.21 xG · goalDion Sanderson · Derby County · 17′ · 0.59 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Burnley: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.49 xG. Derby County: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Zeki Amdouni · Burnley · 34′Mohammed Fuseini · Derby County · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Burnley 0.49 xG · Derby County 1.20 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Burnley4-2-3-1
  1. Max WeissG
  2. Kyle WalkerD
  3. Connor RobertsD
  4. Oliver SonneD
  5. Igor JúlioD
  6. Max AlleyneM
  7. Reo HatateM
  8. Josh LaurentM
  9. Jamie VardyF
  10. Zeki AmdouniF
  11. Largie RamazaniF
Derby County4-2-3-1
  1. Josh VickersG
  2. Sondre LangåsD
  3. Charlie TaylorD
  4. Joe WardD
  5. Eiran CashinD
  6. David OzohM
  7. Bobby ClarkM
  8. Oscar FrauloM
  9. Carlton MorrisF
  10. Sammie SzmodicsF
  11. Mohammed FuseiniF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Burnley
2Draws
0Derby County
Derby County — Burnley · Championship0–0
Burnley — Derby County · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Burnley favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Derby County in 2 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Burnley8 matchesDerby County8 matches
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.14 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.91 xG/match
13.4 shots/match ▲Shots8/812.3 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target8/83.63 shots/match
49.8% ●Possession8/849.4%
4.88 corners/matchCorners8/8● 6.38 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls8/813.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBurnleyDerby County
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headBurnley — Derby County
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required