Championship · 2026Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

Burnley

DLL

vsPre-match analysis

Derby County

LDL

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsBurnley · Derby County12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Burnley	Derby County	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	14 shots/match	17.3 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Burnley

2Draws

0Derby County

8 Apr 2025Derby County — Burnley · Championship0–0

10 Dec 2024Burnley — Derby County · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Burnley favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Derby County in 0 · 13 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Burnley3 matchesDerby County3 matches

1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/31 goal/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲ 2.33 goals/match

1.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/31.07 xG/match

15 shots/match ▲Shots3/312.7 shots/match

4.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/33.67 shots/match

52.7% ●Possession3/346%

5 corners/matchCorners3/3● 5.33 corners/match

10 fouls/matchFouls3/314.3 fouls/match

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley56.2

Derby County35.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley50.7

Derby County30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley27.1

Derby County8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley64.6

Derby County52.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley27.1

Derby County87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley39.6

Derby County52.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley44.8

Derby County52.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.1 days

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

Freshness21 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC · analysis-v4