PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Swansea City 3–1 Burnley · Championship

3–1Full-time analysis

Burnley

LLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Swansea City won 3–1.

Shots
1418
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
2.391.78
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Swansea City beat Burnley 3–1. Recorded in this match (Swansea City – Burnley): shots 14–18, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 2.39–1.78, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Swansea City, Burnley.

3.8 days ▲Rest daysSwansea City · Burnley3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSwansea CityBurnleyBaseline
Rest days3.8 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches4 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Swansea City have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.4% ●PossessionSwansea City · Burnley49.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSwansea CityBurnleyBaseline
Possession58.4%49.4%50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots18 shotsSwansea City 14 shots, Burnley 18 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsSwansea City 7 shots, Burnley 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.39 xG1.78 xGSwansea City 2.39 xG, Burnley 1.78 xG
  • Possession54%46%Swansea City 54%, Burnley 46%
  • Corners3 corners6 cornersSwansea City 3 corners, Burnley 6 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls7 foulsSwansea City 7 fouls, Burnley 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardSwansea City 2 cards, Burnley 1 card
  • Passes555 passes454 passesSwansea City 555 passes, Burnley 454 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.4%81.3%Swansea City 85.4%, Burnley 81.3%
  • Shots inside box10 shots11 shotsSwansea City 10 shots, Burnley 11 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks4 blocksSwansea City 3 blocks, Burnley 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves3 savesSwansea City 5 saves, Burnley 3 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides4 offsidesSwansea City 4 offsides, Burnley 4 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kyle Walker · Burnley · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAaron Ramsey · Burnley · 40′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMoussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMelker Widell · Swansea City · 71′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLargie Ramazani · Burnley · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMax Alleyne · Burnley · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMelker Widell · Swansea City · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAaron Ramsey · Burnley · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosh Laurent · Burnley · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedUgo Raghouber · Burnley · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMelker Widell · Swansea City · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedElijah Just · Swansea City · 74′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMoussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 49′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBen Cabango · Swansea City · 36′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRonald · Swansea City · 74′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hountondji · Burnley · 87′ · 0.07 xG · on targetIgor Júlio · Burnley · 18′ · 0.08 xG · on targetZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 8′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hountondji · Burnley · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetArmando Broja · Burnley · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAdam Idah · Swansea City · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 16′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 33′ · 0.19 xG · goalJosh Laurent · Burnley · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Burnley · 58′ · 0.29 xG · goalOliver Sonne · Burnley · 45′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedZeki Amdouni · Burnley · 40′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedAdam Idah · Swansea City · 14′ · 0.76 xG · goalŽan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 68′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Swansea City: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.39 xG. Burnley: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Adam Idah · Swansea City · 14′Moussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 33′Žan Vipotnik · Swansea City · 68′Largie Ramazani · Burnley · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Swansea City 2.39 xG · Burnley 1.75 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Swansea City4-2-3-1
  1. Lawrence VigourouxG
  2. Josh KeyD
  3. Josh TymonD
  4. Stephen WelshD
  5. Filip LissahD
  6. Jay FultonM
  7. Melker WidellM
  8. Stephen EustaquioM
  9. Ji-sung EomF
  10. Adam IdahF
  11. Moussa Kounfolo YeoF
Burnley4-2-3-1
  1. Max WeissG
  2. Kyle WalkerD
  3. Connor RobertsD
  4. Oliver SonneD
  5. Igor JúlioD
  6. Max AlleyneM
  7. Ugo RaghouberM
  8. Josh LaurentM
  9. Zeki AmdouniF
  10. Largie RamazaniF
  11. Armando BrojaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Swansea City
0Draws
4Burnley
Swansea City — Burnley · Championship0–2
Burnley — Swansea City · Championship1–0
Swansea City — Burnley · Championship1–2
Burnley — Swansea City · Championship4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Swansea City favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Swansea City7 matchesBurnley7 matches
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match
0.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
1.63 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.23 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 14.4 shots/match
5.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match
58.4% ●Possession7/749.4%
4.71 corners/matchCorners7/7● 5 corners/match
9 fouls/matchFouls7/710.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSwansea CityBurnley
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headSwansea City — Burnley
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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