PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Watford 1–2 Stoke City · Championship

Watford

DDLLW
1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Stoke City won 1–2.

Shots
618
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
0.391.5
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stoke City beat Watford 2–1. Recorded in this match (Watford – Stoke City): shots 6–18, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 0.39–1.5, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Watford, Stoke City.

3.8 days ▲Rest daysWatford · Stoke City3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWatfordStoke CityBaseline
Rest days3.8 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Watford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Watford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots18 shotsWatford 6 shots, Stoke City 18 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsWatford 2 shots, Stoke City 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.39 xG1.5 xGWatford 0.39 xG, Stoke City 1.5 xG
  • Possession41%59%Watford 41%, Stoke City 59%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersWatford 5 corners, Stoke City 8 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls6 foulsWatford 14 fouls, Stoke City 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsWatford 2 cards, Stoke City 2 cards
  • Passes380 passes545 passesWatford 380 passes, Stoke City 545 passes
  • Pass accuracy80%87.3%Watford 80%, Stoke City 87.3%
  • Shots inside box4 shots10 shotsWatford 4 shots, Stoke City 10 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksWatford 2 blocks, Stoke City 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 saveWatford 4 saves, Stoke City 1 save
  • Offsides0 offsides3 offsidesWatford 0 offsides, Stoke City 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 19′Iker BravoYellow card · Watford
  2. 33′Djibril SoumaréYellow card · Stoke City
  3. 45′Jack McGlynnGoal · Stoke City
  4. Half-time
  5. 57′Eric BocatGoal · Stoke City
  6. 82′George HirstYellow card · Stoke City
  7. 90′Amin NabizadaGoal · Watford
  8. 90′Amin NabizadaYellow card · Watford
  9. Full time
Player changes · 7grouped by team and minute
  • 42′Watford · 1 player changeOmar Haktab Traore
  • 58′Watford · 2 player changesAmin Nabizada · Rocco Vata
  • 65′Stoke City · 1 player changeGeorge Hirst
  • 69′Watford · 1 player changeLuca Kjerrumgaard
  • 80′Stoke City · 1 player changeLuca Bombino
  • 90′Stoke City · 1 player changeBen Pearson

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Watford4-2-3-1
  1. Federico RavagliaG
  2. Soumaila CoulibalyD
  3. Kévin Keben BiakoloD
  4. Matthew PollockD
  5. Omar Haktab TraoreD
  6. Hector KyprianouM
  7. Martín PayeroM
  8. Edo KayembeM
  9. Othmane MaammaF
  10. Mamadou DoumbiaF
  11. Stephy MavididiF
Stoke City3-5-2
  1. Viktor JohanssonG
  2. Ben JohnsonD
  3. Luke GrahamD
  4. Ben WilmotD
  5. Eric BocatD
  6. Maksym TalovierovD
  7. Ethan GalbraithM
  8. Justin DevennyM
  9. Djibril SoumaréM
  10. Róbert BoženíkF
  11. George HirstF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Watford
2Draws
1Stoke City
Stoke City — Watford · Championship3–1
Watford — Stoke City · Championship1–0
Stoke City — Watford · Championship0–0
Watford — Stoke City · Championship3–0
Watford — Stoke City · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Watford favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Stoke City in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Watford7 matchesStoke City7 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 1.57 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 0.99 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots7/711.9 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 4 shots/match
43.4%Possession7/7● 44.3%
3.43 corners/matchCorners7/7● 4 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/715.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWatfordStoke City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headWatford — Stoke City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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