PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Cardiff City 1–1 Stoke City · Championship

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cardiff City and Stoke City drew 1–1.

Shots
2612
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.70.75
Possession
71%29%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cardiff City and Stoke City drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Cardiff City – Stoke City): shots 26–12, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.7–0.75, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Cardiff City, Stoke City.

3.2 days ▲Rest daysCardiff City · Stoke City3.3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCardiff CityStoke CityBaseline
Rest days3.2 days3.3 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Cardiff City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cardiff City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.7 shots/match ▲ShotsCardiff City · Stoke City10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCardiff CityStoke CityBaseline
Shots17.7 shots/match10.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against14.3 shots/match16.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Cardiff City have recorded the higher season possession share.

66% ●PossessionCardiff City · Stoke City41.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCardiff CityStoke CityBaseline
Possession66%41.8%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots26 shots12 shotsCardiff City 26 shots, Stoke City 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsCardiff City 6 shots, Stoke City 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.7 xG0.75 xGCardiff City 2.7 xG, Stoke City 0.75 xG
  • Possession71%29%Cardiff City 71%, Stoke City 29%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersCardiff City 7 corners, Stoke City 5 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls19 foulsCardiff City 5 fouls, Stoke City 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsCardiff City 1 card, Stoke City 2 cards
  • Passes561 passes231 passesCardiff City 561 passes, Stoke City 231 passes
  • Pass accuracy87%68%Cardiff City 87%, Stoke City 68%
  • Shots inside box18 shots8 shotsCardiff City 18 shots, Stoke City 8 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks3 blocksCardiff City 8 blocks, Stoke City 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves5 savesCardiff City 3 saves, Stoke City 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides4 offsidesCardiff City 2 offsides, Stoke City 4 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 23′Ben JohnsonGoal · Stoke City
  2. 27′Ben WilmotYellow card · Stoke City
  3. 45′Perry NgYellow card · Cardiff City
  4. Half-time
  5. 63′Joel ColwillGoal · Cardiff City
  6. 81′Luke GrahamYellow card · Stoke City
  7. Full time
Player changes · 5grouped by team and minute
  • 59′Stoke City · 2 player changesJun-Ho Bae · Eric Bocat
  • 69′Stoke City · 2 player changesJack McGlynn · Lamine Cissé
  • 82′Cardiff City · 1 player changeCian Ashford

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Cardiff City4-2-3-1
  1. Nathan TrottG
  2. Joel BaganD
  3. Gabriel OshoD
  4. Calum ScanlonD
  5. Perry NgD
  6. Jack MoylanM
  7. David TurnbullM
  8. Alex RobertsonM
  9. Yousef SalechF
  10. Ollie TannerF
  11. Chris WillockF
Stoke City3-5-2
  1. Viktor JohanssonG
  2. Ben JohnsonD
  3. Luke GrahamD
  4. Ben WilmotD
  5. Eric BocatD
  6. Maksym TalovierovD
  7. Ethan GalbraithM
  8. Justin DevennyM
  9. Djibril SoumaréM
  10. Róbert BoženíkF
  11. George HirstF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cardiff City
3Draws
1Stoke City
Cardiff City — Stoke City · Championship0–1
Stoke City — Cardiff City · Championship2–2
Cardiff City — Stoke City · Championship2–1
Stoke City — Cardiff City · Championship0–0
Cardiff City — Stoke City · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cardiff City favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Stoke City in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cardiff City6 matchesStoke City6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
1.59 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/60.9 xG/match
17.7 shots/match ▲Shots6/610.8 shots/match
5.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match
66% ●Possession6/641.8%
7.67 corners/match ●Corners6/63.33 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls6/617.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 8 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCardiff CityStoke City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headCardiff City — Stoke City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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