PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Watford 2–1 Preston North End · Championship

Watford

WDDLL
2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Watford won 2–1.

Shots
1518
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.262.44
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Watford beat Preston North End 2–1. Recorded in this match (Watford – Preston North End): shots 15–18, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.26–2.44, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Watford, Preston North End.

3.2 days ▲Rest daysWatford · Preston North End3.3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWatfordPreston North EndBaseline
Rest days3.2 days3.3 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Watford have a visible home split

weak

Watford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Watford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Watford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.37 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots18 shotsWatford 15 shots, Preston North End 18 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsWatford 5 shots, Preston North End 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.26 xG2.44 xGWatford 1.26 xG, Preston North End 2.44 xG
  • Possession61%39%Watford 61%, Preston North End 39%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersWatford 2 corners, Preston North End 4 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls10 foulsWatford 7 fouls, Preston North End 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsWatford 0 cards, Preston North End 2 cards
  • Passes525 passes318 passesWatford 525 passes, Preston North End 318 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.2%76.4%Watford 83.2%, Preston North End 76.4%
  • Shots inside box11 shots10 shotsWatford 11 shots, Preston North End 10 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks6 blocksWatford 3 blocks, Preston North End 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves3 savesWatford 5 saves, Preston North End 3 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideWatford 2 offsides, Preston North End 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 6′Callum LangGoal · Preston North End
  2. Half-time
  3. 62′Andrija VukčevićYellow card · Preston North End
  4. 67′Lewis GibsonYellow card · Preston North End
  5. 69′Edo KayembeGoal · Watford
  6. 76′Mamadou DoumbiaGoal · Watford
  7. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Watford · 3 player changesOthmane Maamma · Iker Bravo · Stephy Mavididi
  • 61′Watford · 1 player changeJordan Zemura
  • 66′Preston North End · 2 player changesDelano Burgzorg · Stanley Mills
  • 75′Preston North End · 2 player changesLiam Gibbs · Jusef Erabi
  • 82′Preston North End · 1 player changeThierry Small
  • 88′Watford · 1 player changeLuca Kjerrumgaard

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Watford4-2-3-1
  1. Federico RavagliaG
  2. Kévin Keben BiakoloD
  3. Matthew PollockD
  4. Soumaila CoulibalyD
  5. Jordan ZemuraD
  6. Hector KyprianouM
  7. Martín PayeroM
  8. Edo KayembeM
  9. Othmane MaammaF
  10. Luca KjerrumgaardF
  11. Iker BravoF
Preston North End4-4-2
  1. Daniel IversenG
  2. Harry ClarkeD
  3. Caleb WileyD
  4. Jordan StoreyD
  5. Lewis GibsonD
  6. Alfie DevineM
  7. Jordan ThompsonM
  8. Stanley MillsM
  9. Leo LeroyM
  10. Callum LangF
  11. Delano BurgzorgF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Watford
3Draws
2Preston North End
Preston North End — Watford · Championship2–2
Watford — Preston North End · Championship1–1
Watford — Preston North End · Championship1–2
Preston North End — Watford · Championship3–0
Watford — Preston North End · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Watford favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Preston North End in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Watford6 matchesPreston North End6 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored6/61 goal/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.46 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots6/613.2 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63.17 shots/match
43.8% ●Possession6/642.8%
3.17 corners/matchCorners6/6● 3.83 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls6/612.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 8 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWatfordPreston North End
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headWatford — Preston North End
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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