PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Southampton 4–1 Bristol City · Championship

4–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Southampton won 4–1.

Shots
1021
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.712.24
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Southampton beat Bristol City 4–1. Recorded in this match (Southampton – Bristol City): shots 10–21, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.71–2.24, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Southampton, Bristol City.

3.8 days ▲Rest daysSouthampton · Bristol City7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSouthamptonBristol CityBaseline
Rest days3.8 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bristol City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bristol City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bristol City have a visible away split

weak

Bristol City's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots21 shotsSouthampton 10 shots, Bristol City 21 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsSouthampton 5 shots, Bristol City 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.71 xG2.24 xGSouthampton 1.71 xG, Bristol City 2.24 xG
  • Possession56%44%Southampton 56%, Bristol City 44%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersSouthampton 2 corners, Bristol City 5 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls14 foulsSouthampton 6 fouls, Bristol City 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsSouthampton 0 cards, Bristol City 2 cards
  • Passes533 passes394 passesSouthampton 533 passes, Bristol City 394 passes
  • Pass accuracy88.6%87.6%Southampton 88.6%, Bristol City 87.6%
  • Shots inside box8 shots18 shotsSouthampton 8 shots, Bristol City 18 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksSouthampton 3 blocks, Bristol City 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 saveSouthampton 4 saves, Bristol City 1 save

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 38′Cyle LarinGoal · Southampton
  2. Half-time
  3. 54′Lisav Naif EissatYellow card · Bristol City
  4. 61′Cyle LarinGoal · Southampton
  5. 66′Lorent TolajGoal · Bristol City
  6. 82′Kuryu MatsukiGoal · Southampton
  7. 85′Finn AzazGoal · Southampton
  8. 89′Sam GreenwoodYellow card · Bristol City
  9. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Southampton · 1 player changeCameron Bragg
  • 58′Bristol City · 2 player changesJed Wallace · Sam Greenwood
  • 69′Southampton · 1 player changeTom Fellows
  • 77′Bristol City · 1 player changeTomi Horvat
  • 78′Southampton · 1 player changeDivin Mubama
  • 78′Bristol City · 1 player changeCameron Pring
  • 83′Bristol City · 1 player changeElijah Adebayo
  • 88′Southampton · 2 player changesLewis Dobbin · Welington

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Southampton4-2-3-1
  1. Daniel PeretzG
  2. Ryan ManningD
  3. Keven SchlotterbeckD
  4. James BreeD
  5. Nathan WoodD
  6. Flynn DownesM
  7. Finn AzazM
  8. James Ward-ProwseM
  9. Leo ScienzaF
  10. Cyle LarinF
  11. Tom FellowsF
Bristol City4-2-3-1
  1. Sam TickleG
  2. Lisav Naif EissatD
  3. Cameron PringD
  4. Rob DickieD
  5. Rio CardinesD
  6. Joe WilliamsM
  7. Scott TwineM
  8. Jason KnightM
  9. Yu HirakawaF
  10. Lorent TolajF
  11. Sam GreenwoodF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Southampton
1Draws
2Bristol City
Southampton — Bristol City · Championship2–2
Bristol City — Southampton · Championship3–1
Bristol City — Southampton · Championship3–1
Southampton — Bristol City · Championship1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Southampton favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Bristol City in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Southampton7 matchesBristol City6 matches
2.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/61.67 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/61.83 goals/match
1.73 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/61.29 xG/match
15.9 shots/match ▲Shots7/613.2 shots/match
4.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/64.33 shots/match
57.7% ●Possession7/642.3%
6 corners/match ●Corners7/64.5 corners/match
8.43 fouls/matchFouls7/611.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSouthamptonBristol City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headSouthampton — Bristol City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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