PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln City · Championship

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Lincoln City won 0–1.

Shots
189
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.460.85
Possession
67%33%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lincoln City beat Bristol City 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bristol City – Lincoln City): shots 18–9, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.46–0.85, possession 67%–33%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lincoln City have a visible away split

weak

Lincoln City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bristol City, Lincoln City.

3.2 days ▲Rest daysBristol City · Lincoln City3.2 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBristol CityLincoln CityBaseline
Rest days3.2 days3.2 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bristol City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bristol City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsBristol City · Lincoln City12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBristol CityLincoln CityBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match15.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots9 shotsBristol City 18 shots, Lincoln City 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsBristol City 4 shots, Lincoln City 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.46 xG0.85 xGBristol City 1.46 xG, Lincoln City 0.85 xG
  • Possession67%33%Bristol City 67%, Lincoln City 33%
  • Corners13 corners4 cornersBristol City 13 corners, Lincoln City 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls19 foulsBristol City 13 fouls, Lincoln City 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cardsBristol City 2 cards, Lincoln City 5 cards
  • Passes515 passes249 passesBristol City 515 passes, Lincoln City 249 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.7%63.9%Bristol City 83.7%, Lincoln City 63.9%
  • Shots inside box12 shots5 shotsBristol City 12 shots, Lincoln City 5 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks3 blocksBristol City 6 blocks, Lincoln City 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves4 savesBristol City 2 saves, Lincoln City 4 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesBristol City 0 offsides, Lincoln City 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 14′Ben HouseYellow card · Lincoln City
  2. 28′Lisav Naif EissatYellow card · Bristol City
  3. 37′Deji ElereweYellow card · Lincoln City
  4. 41′Lorent TolajYellow card · Bristol City
  5. 45′Freddie DraperYellow card · Lincoln City
  6. Half-time
  7. 53′Freddie DraperGoal · Lincoln City
  8. 68′Ryley TowlerYellow card · Lincoln City
  9. 69′George WickensYellow card · Lincoln City
  10. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 59′Bristol City · 1 player changeDominic Ballard
  • 63′Lincoln City · 1 player changeReeco Hackett-Fairchild
  • 71′Lincoln City · 2 player changesRobert Street · Daniel Oyegoke
  • 76′Bristol City · 3 player changesRobert Atkinson · Elijah Adebayo · Sam Greenwood
  • 86′Bristol City · 1 player changeSam Bell
  • 90′Lincoln City · 1 player changeTom Bayliss

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Bristol City4-2-3-1
  1. Sam TickleG
  2. Lisav Naif EissatD
  3. Cameron PringD
  4. Rob DickieD
  5. Rio CardinesD
  6. Joe WilliamsM
  7. Jason KnightM
  8. Dominic BallardM
  9. Yu HirakawaF
  10. Lorent TolajF
  11. Scott TwineF
Lincoln City3-4-2-1
  1. George WickensG
  2. Adam ReachD
  3. Andrei CoubișD
  4. Sonny BradleyD
  5. Dom JefferiesD
  6. Deji ElereweD
  7. Tom BaylissM
  8. Conor McGrandlesM
  9. Reeco Hackett-FairchildF
  10. Robert StreetF
  11. Ben HouseF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bristol City favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Lincoln City in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bristol City7 matchesLincoln City7 matches
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 0.86 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals7/71.31 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots7/712.3 shots/match
4.29 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73 shots/match
45.9% ●Possession7/736.1%
5.71 corners/match ●Corners7/74.43 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/714 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBristol CityLincoln City
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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