PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Bristol City 1–0 Watford · Championship

1–0Full-time analysis

Watford

DLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bristol City won 1–0.

Shots
1710
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
1.560.52
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bristol City beat Watford 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bristol City – Watford): shots 17–10, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 1.56–0.52, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Watford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Watford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bristol City, Watford.

3.01 days ▲Rest daysBristol City · Watford6.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBristol CityWatfordBaseline
Rest days3.01 days6.21 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bristol City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bristol City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsBristol City · Watford11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBristol CityWatfordBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match15.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots10 shotsBristol City 17 shots, Watford 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsBristol City 7 shots, Watford 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.56 xG0.52 xGBristol City 1.56 xG, Watford 0.52 xG
  • Possession36%64%Bristol City 36%, Watford 64%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersBristol City 2 corners, Watford 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls15 foulsBristol City 11 fouls, Watford 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cardsBristol City 2 cards, Watford 5 cards
  • Passes270 passes491 passesBristol City 270 passes, Watford 491 passes
  • Pass accuracy77%85.1%Bristol City 77%, Watford 85.1%
  • Shots inside box12 shots3 shotsBristol City 12 shots, Watford 3 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks5 blocksBristol City 5 blocks, Watford 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves6 savesBristol City 2 saves, Watford 6 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesBristol City 3 offsides, Watford 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 21′Mamadou DoumbiaYellow card · Watford
  2. 25′Amin NabizadaYellow card · Watford
  3. 31′Dominic BallardGoal · Bristol City
  4. Half-time
  5. 54′Branimir MlačićYellow card · Watford
  6. 54′Joe WilliamsYellow card · Bristol City
  7. 54′Edo KayembeYellow card · Watford
  8. 54′Jason KnightYellow card · Bristol City
  9. 81′Matthew PollockYellow card · Watford
  10. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 62′Watford · 3 player changesAlbert Eames · Stephy Mavididi · Othmane Maamma
  • 63′Bristol City · 2 player changesJed Wallace · Lorent Tolaj
  • 70′Bristol City · 1 player changeCameron Pring
  • 70′Watford · 1 player changeMyron Boadu
  • 88′Bristol City · 2 player changesLisav Naif Eissat · Gibson Yah

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Bristol City4-2-3-1
  1. Sam TickleG
  2. Lisav Naif EissatD
  3. Cameron PringD
  4. Rob DickieD
  5. Rio CardinesD
  6. Joe WilliamsM
  7. Jason KnightM
  8. Dominic BallardM
  9. Yu HirakawaF
  10. Lorent TolajF
  11. Scott TwineF
Watford4-2-3-1
  1. Federico RavagliaG
  2. Soumaila CoulibalyD
  3. Kévin Keben BiakoloD
  4. Matthew PollockD
  5. Omar Haktab TraoreD
  6. Hector KyprianouM
  7. Iker BravoM
  8. Edo KayembeM
  9. Othmane MaammaF
  10. Mamadou DoumbiaF
  11. Stephy MavididiF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Bristol City
1Draws
2Watford
Bristol City — Watford · Championship1–2
Bristol City — Watford · FA Cup5–1
Watford — Bristol City · Championship1–1
Bristol City — Watford · Championship2–1
Watford — Bristol City · Championship1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bristol City favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Watford in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bristol City8 matchesWatford8 matches
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.86 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots8/811.5 shots/match
4.63 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/83.5 shots/match
44.6%Possession8/8● 46%
5.25 corners/match ●Corners8/83.63 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls8/811.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBristol CityWatford
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headBristol City — Watford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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