PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Preston North End 0–1 Lincoln City · Championship

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Lincoln City won 0–1.

Shots
117
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.550.66
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lincoln City beat Preston North End 1–0. Recorded in this match (Preston North End – Lincoln City): shots 11–7, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.55–0.66, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lincoln City have a visible away split

weak

Lincoln City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.33 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.33 shots/match12.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Preston North End, Lincoln City.

3.8 days ▲Rest daysPreston North End · Lincoln City7.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricPreston North EndLincoln CityBaseline
Rest days3.8 days7.1 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots7 shotsPreston North End 11 shots, Lincoln City 7 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsPreston North End 3 shots, Lincoln City 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.55 xG0.66 xGPreston North End 0.55 xG, Lincoln City 0.66 xG
  • Possession52%48%Preston North End 52%, Lincoln City 48%
  • Corners16 corners3 cornersPreston North End 16 corners, Lincoln City 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls9 foulsPreston North End 8 fouls, Lincoln City 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardPreston North End 1 card, Lincoln City 1 card
  • Passes338 passes342 passesPreston North End 338 passes, Lincoln City 342 passes
  • Pass accuracy74.6%74.3%Preston North End 74.6%, Lincoln City 74.3%
  • Shots inside box7 shots6 shotsPreston North End 7 shots, Lincoln City 6 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks1 blockPreston North End 6 blocks, Lincoln City 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves2 savesPreston North End 3 saves, Lincoln City 2 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesPreston North End 0 offsides, Lincoln City 2 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Harry Clarke · Preston North End · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedStanley Mills · Preston North End · 22′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHarry Clarke · Preston North End · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdam Reach · Lincoln City · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohnny Kenny · Preston North End · 52′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJohnny Kenny · Preston North End · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrew Hughes · Preston North End · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBen House · Lincoln City · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Lincoln City · 80′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJordan Storey · Preston North End · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdam Reach · Lincoln City · 15′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Oyegoke · Lincoln City · 32′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJordan Storey · Preston North End · 69′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedConor McGrandles · Lincoln City · 54′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJohnny Kenny · Preston North End · 17′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedFreddie Draper · Lincoln City · 81′ · 0.18 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Preston North End: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.55 xG. Lincoln City: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Freddie Draper · Lincoln City · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Preston North End 0.55 xG · Lincoln City 0.66 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Preston North End5-3-2
  1. Daniel IversenG
  2. Harry ClarkeD
  3. Caleb WileyD
  4. Jordan StoreyD
  5. Lewis GibsonD
  6. Odeluga OffiahD
  7. Alfie DevineM
  8. Leo LeroyM
  9. Liam GibbsM
  10. Callum LangF
  11. Johnny KennyF
Lincoln City3-4-3
  1. George WickensG
  2. Adam ReachD
  3. Andrei CoubișD
  4. Ryley TowlerD
  5. Sonny BradleyD
  6. Deji ElereweD
  7. Conor McGrandlesM
  8. Ivan VarfolomeevM
  9. Robert StreetF
  10. Ben HouseF
  11. Freddie DraperF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Preston North End favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Lincoln City in 4 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Preston North End7 matchesLincoln City6 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/60.83 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲ 1 goal/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals7/61.39 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots7/612.8 shots/match
3.14 shots/matchShots on target7/63 shots/match
44.1% ●Possession7/636.7%
5.57 corners/match ●Corners7/64.5 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/613.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPreston North EndLincoln City
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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