PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall · Championship

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Middlesbrough and Millwall drew 2–2.

Shots
2211
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.791.46
Possession
80%20%

Full time

What the match recorded

Middlesbrough and Millwall drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Middlesbrough – Millwall): shots 22–11, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.79–1.46, possession 80%–20%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Middlesbrough, Millwall.

3.2 days ▲Rest daysMiddlesbrough · Millwall3.2 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMiddlesbroughMillwallBaseline
Rest days3.2 days3.2 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Middlesbrough show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Middlesbrough's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.7 shots/match ▲ShotsMiddlesbrough · Millwall14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMiddlesbroughMillwallBaseline
Shots17.7 shots/match14.1 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match14.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Millwall's recent record differs from the season

weak

Millwall's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots11 shotsMiddlesbrough 22 shots, Millwall 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsMiddlesbrough 7 shots, Millwall 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.79 xG1.46 xGMiddlesbrough 1.79 xG, Millwall 1.46 xG
  • Possession80%20%Middlesbrough 80%, Millwall 20%
  • Corners14 corners1 cornerMiddlesbrough 14 corners, Millwall 1 corner
  • Fouls3 fouls12 foulsMiddlesbrough 3 fouls, Millwall 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardMiddlesbrough 1 card, Millwall 1 card
  • Passes643 passes159 passesMiddlesbrough 643 passes, Millwall 159 passes
  • Pass accuracy92.1%61.6%Middlesbrough 92.1%, Millwall 61.6%
  • Shots inside box12 shots11 shotsMiddlesbrough 12 shots, Millwall 11 shots
  • Blocked shots10 blocks1 blockMiddlesbrough 10 blocks, Millwall 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesMiddlesbrough 2 saves, Millwall 5 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides3 offsidesMiddlesbrough 4 offsides, Millwall 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 11′Tairyk ArconteGoal · Millwall
  2. 36′Lyndon DykesGoal · Millwall
  3. Half-time
  4. 50′Amario Cozier-DuberryGoal · Middlesbrough
  5. 59′Derek Mazou-SackoYellow card · Millwall
  6. 61′Will LankshearGoal · Middlesbrough
  7. 66′Riley McGreeYellow card · Middlesbrough
  8. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Middlesbrough · 3 player changesKyle Joseph · Jeremy Sarmiento · Maximilian Arfsten
  • 56′Millwall · 1 player changeElkan Baggott
  • 75′Millwall · 2 player changesDaniel Kelly · Zak Lovelace
  • 78′Middlesbrough · 1 player changeMyles Peart-Harris
  • 84′Millwall · 2 player changesYanis Issoufou · Luke Cundle
  • 85′Middlesbrough · 1 player changeDavid Strelec

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Middlesbrough4-2-3-1
  1. Radek VitekG
  2. Callum BrittainD
  3. Ashley PhillipsD
  4. Alfie JonesD
  5. Neto BorgesD
  6. Sebastian BerhalterM
  7. Riley McGreeM
  8. Aidan MorrisM
  9. Will LankshearF
  10. Tommy ConwayF
  11. Amario Cozier-DuberryF
Millwall4-2-3-1
  1. Max CrocombeG
  2. Jordi Osei-TutuD
  3. Zak SturgeD
  4. Jake CooperD
  5. Caleb TaylorD
  6. Tairyk ArconteM
  7. Jenson MetcalfeM
  8. Derek Mazou-SackoM
  9. Camiel NeghliF
  10. Romain EsseF
  11. Lyndon DykesF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Middlesbrough
0Draws
2Millwall
Middlesbrough — Millwall · Championship1–2
Millwall — Middlesbrough · Championship0–3
Millwall — Middlesbrough · Championship1–0
Middlesbrough — Millwall · Championship1–0
Millwall — Middlesbrough · Championship1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Middlesbrough favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Millwall in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Middlesbrough7 matchesMillwall7 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.86 goals/match
1.93 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.81 xG/match
17.7 shots/match ▲Shots7/714.1 shots/match
5.29 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.71 shots/match
61.4% ●Possession7/745.6%
6.14 corners/match ●Corners7/74.57 corners/match
9.86 fouls/matchFouls7/712.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMiddlesbroughMillwall
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headMiddlesbrough — Millwall
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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