PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Blackburn Rovers 3–1 Millwall · Championship

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Blackburn Rovers won 3–1.

Shots
1815
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.091.63
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Blackburn Rovers beat Millwall 3–1. Recorded in this match (Blackburn Rovers – Millwall): shots 18–15, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.09–1.63, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Blackburn Rovers, Millwall.

3.8 days ▲Rest daysBlackburn Rovers · Millwall7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBlackburn RoversMillwallBaseline
Rest days3.8 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Millwall have a visible away split

weak

Millwall's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.7 shots/match14.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Blackburn Rovers's recent record differs from the season

weak

Blackburn Rovers's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots15 shotsBlackburn Rovers 18 shots, Millwall 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsBlackburn Rovers 4 shots, Millwall 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.09 xG1.63 xGBlackburn Rovers 1.09 xG, Millwall 1.63 xG
  • Possession45%55%Blackburn Rovers 45%, Millwall 55%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersBlackburn Rovers 6 corners, Millwall 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsBlackburn Rovers 10 fouls, Millwall 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards3 cardsBlackburn Rovers 5 cards, Millwall 3 cards
  • Passes353 passes439 passesBlackburn Rovers 353 passes, Millwall 439 passes
  • Pass accuracy78.8%78.8%Blackburn Rovers 78.8%, Millwall 78.8%
  • Shots inside box8 shots12 shotsBlackburn Rovers 8 shots, Millwall 12 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks6 blocksBlackburn Rovers 4 blocks, Millwall 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save1 saveBlackburn Rovers 1 save, Millwall 1 save
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesBlackburn Rovers 1 offside, Millwall 2 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sean McLoughlin · Blackburn Rovers · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDerek Mazou-Sacko · Millwall · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJake Cooper · Millwall · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Esse · Millwall · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Atcheson · Blackburn Rovers · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTodd Cantwell · Blackburn Rovers · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOladapo Afolayan · Blackburn Rovers · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Alebiosu · Blackburn Rovers · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Esse · Millwall · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · Blackburn Rovers · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKristi Montgomery · Blackburn Rovers · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Pickering · Blackburn Rovers · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJayden Fevrier · Blackburn Rovers · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGady Beyuku · Blackburn Rovers · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZak Sturge · Millwall · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Esse · Millwall · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSam Morsy · Blackburn Rovers · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJayden Fevrier · Blackburn Rovers · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJayden Fevrier · Blackburn Rovers · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLyndon Dykes · Millwall · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCamiel Neghli · Millwall · 11′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSam Morsy · Blackburn Rovers · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTairyk Arconte · Millwall · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTairyk Arconte · Millwall · 66′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLyndon Dykes · Millwall · 67′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · Blackburn Rovers · 58′ · 0.10 xG · goalAndri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn Rovers · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYanis Issoufou · Millwall · 71′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedTairyk Arconte · Millwall · 90′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · Blackburn Rovers · 41′ · 0.21 xG · goalAndri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn Rovers · 90′ · 0.24 xG · goalLyndon Dykes · Millwall · 51′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Blackburn Rovers: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.07 xG. Millwall: 15 shots, 2 on target, 1.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Oladapo Afolayan · Blackburn Rovers · 41′Oladapo Afolayan · Blackburn Rovers · 58′Andri Guðjohnsen · Blackburn Rovers · 90′Lyndon Dykes · Millwall · 51′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Blackburn Rovers 1.07 xG · Millwall 1.67 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Blackburn Rovers4-2-3-1
  1. Aynsley PearsG
  2. Ryan AlebiosuD
  3. Yuri RibeiroD
  4. Tom AtchesonD
  5. Sean McLoughlinD
  6. Sam MorsyM
  7. Todd CantwellM
  8. Kristi MontgomeryM
  9. Jayden FevrierF
  10. Oladapo AfolayanF
  11. Ryoya MorishitaF
Millwall4-2-3-1
  1. Max CrocombeG
  2. Jordi Osei-TutuD
  3. Zak SturgeD
  4. Jake CooperD
  5. Caleb TaylorD
  6. Tairyk ArconteM
  7. Jenson MetcalfeM
  8. Derek Mazou-SackoM
  9. Camiel NeghliF
  10. Romain EsseF
  11. Lyndon DykesF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Blackburn Rovers
1Draws
1Millwall
Millwall — Blackburn Rovers · Championship1–2
Blackburn Rovers — Millwall · Championship2–0
Blackburn Rovers — Millwall · Championship4–1
Millwall — Blackburn Rovers · Championship1–0
Blackburn Rovers — Millwall · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Blackburn Rovers favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Millwall in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Blackburn Rovers7 matchesMillwall6 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/6▲ 1.83 goals/match
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/61.83 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲ 1.87 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots7/6▲ 14.7 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/63.67 shots/match
52.1% ●Possession7/649.8%
5.86 corners/match ●Corners7/65.17 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/612.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBlackburn RoversMillwall
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headBlackburn Rovers — Millwall
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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