PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City · Championship

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Birmingham City won 1–2.

Shots
1818
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
1.013.05
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Birmingham City beat Derby County 2–1. Recorded in this match (Derby County – Birmingham City): shots 18–18, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 1.01–3.05, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Derby County, Birmingham City.

2.7 days ▲Rest daysDerby County · Birmingham City2.7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDerby CountyBirmingham CityBaseline
Rest days2.7 days2.7 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Derby County's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Derby County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.43 corners/match ●CornersDerby County · Birmingham City6.14 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricDerby CountyBirmingham CityBaseline
Corners6.43 corners/match6.14 corners/match5.15 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots18 shotsDerby County 18 shots, Birmingham City 18 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shotsDerby County 4 shots, Birmingham City 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.01 xG3.05 xGDerby County 1.01 xG, Birmingham City 3.05 xG
  • Possession59%41%Derby County 59%, Birmingham City 41%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersDerby County 10 corners, Birmingham City 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls12 foulsDerby County 8 fouls, Birmingham City 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsDerby County 1 card, Birmingham City 3 cards
  • Passes383 passes276 passesDerby County 383 passes, Birmingham City 276 passes
  • Pass accuracy75.7%66.3%Derby County 75.7%, Birmingham City 66.3%
  • Shots inside box10 shots13 shotsDerby County 10 shots, Birmingham City 13 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks2 blocksDerby County 7 blocks, Birmingham City 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves1 saveDerby County 6 saves, Birmingham City 1 save
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideDerby County 4 offsides, Birmingham City 1 offside

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bobby Clark · Derby County · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOscar Fraulo · Derby County · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoe Ward · Derby County · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Cochrane · Birmingham City · 63′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOscar Fraulo · Derby County · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Fuseini · Derby County · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCarlton Morris · Derby County · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCorey Blackett-Taylor · Derby County · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Klarer · Birmingham City · 20′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBobby Clark · Derby County · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEiran Cashin · Derby County · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEiran Cashin · Derby County · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 33′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 62′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEthan Laird · Birmingham City · 89′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTomoki Iwata · Birmingham City · 34′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBobby Clark · Derby County · 40′ · 0.10 xG · goalJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 84′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Derby County · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 42′ · 0.14 xG · goalJay Stansfield · Birmingham City · 33′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedSammie Szmodics · Derby County · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAugust Priske · Birmingham City · 11′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 83′ · 0.31 xG · on targetLuis Vázquez · Birmingham City · 89′ · 0.78 xG · off target or blockedSeung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 64′ · 0.98 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Derby County: 18 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG. Birmingham City: 18 shots, 8 on target, 3.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Bobby Clark · Derby County · 40′Carlos Vicente · Birmingham City · 42′Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham City · 64′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Derby County 1.00 xG · Birmingham City 3.18 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Derby County4-2-3-1
  1. Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
  2. Sondre LangåsD
  3. Charlie TaylorD
  4. Joe WardD
  5. Eiran CashinD
  6. David OzohM
  7. Bobby ClarkM
  8. Alex MowattM
  9. Sammie SzmodicsF
  10. Mohammed FuseiniF
  11. Corey Blackett-TaylorF
Birmingham City4-2-3-1
  1. James BeadleG
  2. Ethan LairdD
  3. Christoph KlarerD
  4. Phil NeumannD
  5. Alex CochraneD
  6. Seung Ho PaikM
  7. Tomoki IwataM
  8. Jay StansfieldM
  9. Carlos VicenteF
  10. August PriskeF
  11. Liam MillarF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Derby County
2Draws
1Birmingham City
Derby County — Birmingham City · Championship1–0
Birmingham City — Derby County · Championship1–1
Derby County — Birmingham City · Championship2–2
Birmingham City — Derby County · Championship2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Derby County favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Birmingham City in 11 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Derby County7 matchesBirmingham City7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 1.43 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 1.29 goals/match
0.87 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 1.73 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 13.1 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 4.43 shots/match
49.6% ●Possession7/748.4%
6.43 corners/match ●Corners7/76.14 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDerby CountyBirmingham City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headDerby County — Birmingham City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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