PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Bolton Wanderers 1–0 Cardiff City · Championship

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bolton Wanderers won 1–0.

Shots
717
Shots on target
510
Expected goals
0.421.82
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bolton Wanderers beat Cardiff City 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bolton Wanderers – Cardiff City): shots 7–17, shots on target 5–10, expected goals 0.42–1.82, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bolton Wanderers, Cardiff City.

3.69 days ▲Rest daysBolton Wanderers · Cardiff City3.7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBolton WanderersCardiff CityBaseline
Rest days3.69 days3.7 days—
Matches last 14 days4 matches4 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Cardiff City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cardiff City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cardiff City have a visible away split

weak

Cardiff City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season17.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match17.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots17 shotsBolton Wanderers 7 shots, Cardiff City 17 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots10 shotsBolton Wanderers 5 shots, Cardiff City 10 shots
  • Expected goals0.42 xG1.82 xGBolton Wanderers 0.42 xG, Cardiff City 1.82 xG
  • Possession41%59%Bolton Wanderers 41%, Cardiff City 59%
  • Corners2 corners10 cornersBolton Wanderers 2 corners, Cardiff City 10 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls13 foulsBolton Wanderers 16 fouls, Cardiff City 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards2 cardsBolton Wanderers 5 cards, Cardiff City 2 cards
  • Passes339 passes483 passesBolton Wanderers 339 passes, Cardiff City 483 passes
  • Pass accuracy73.8%82.6%Bolton Wanderers 73.8%, Cardiff City 82.6%
  • Shots inside box4 shots13 shotsBolton Wanderers 4 shots, Cardiff City 13 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block5 blocksBolton Wanderers 1 block, Cardiff City 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves10 saves4 savesBolton Wanderers 10 saves, Cardiff City 4 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides7 offsidesBolton Wanderers 3 offsides, Cardiff City 7 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alex Robertson · Cardiff City · 20′ · 0.02 xG · on targetChris Willock · Cardiff City · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRúben Rodrigues · Bolton Wanderers · 28′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJosh Sheehan · Bolton Wanderers · 71′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOllie Tanner · Cardiff City · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOllie Tanner · Cardiff City · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChris Willock · Cardiff City · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Iling Junior · Bolton Wanderers · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetOllie Tanner · Cardiff City · 66′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCian Ashford · Cardiff City · 80′ · 0.05 xG · on targetThierry Gale · Bolton Wanderers · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalKyliane Dong · Bolton Wanderers · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoel Colwill · Cardiff City · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoel Colwill · Cardiff City · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Iling Junior · Bolton Wanderers · 25′ · 0.08 xG · on targetYousef Salech · Cardiff City · 6′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMax Conway · Bolton Wanderers · 87′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedYousef Salech · Cardiff City · 12′ · 0.13 xG · on targetCallum Robinson · Cardiff City · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetYousef Salech · Cardiff City · 13′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedChris Willock · Cardiff City · 8′ · 0.15 xG · on targetJack Moylan · Cardiff City · 73′ · 0.23 xG · on targetYousef Salech · Cardiff City · 66′ · 0.24 xG · on targetKrystian Bielik · Cardiff City · 13′ · 0.28 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bolton Wanderers: 7 shots, 5 on target, 0.42 xG. Cardiff City: 17 shots, 10 on target, 1.81 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Thierry Gale · Bolton Wanderers · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bolton Wanderers 0.42 xG · Cardiff City 1.81 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Bolton Wanderers4-2-3-1
  1. Gavin BazunuG
  2. Chris ForinoD
  3. Eoin ToalD
  4. Gaizka LarrazabalD
  5. Max ConwayD
  6. Josh SheehanM
  7. Rúben RodriguesM
  8. Ethan ErhahonM
  9. Kyliane DongF
  10. Samuel Iling JuniorF
  11. Ryan HardieF
Cardiff City4-2-3-1
  1. Nathan TrottG
  2. Joel BaganD
  3. Gabriel OshoD
  4. Krystian BielikD
  5. Perry NgD
  6. Jack MoylanM
  7. Alex RobertsonM
  8. Joel ColwillM
  9. Yousef SalechF
  10. Chris WillockF
  11. Cian AshfordF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bolton Wanderers
0Draws
1Cardiff City
Cardiff City — Bolton Wanderers · League One2–0
Bolton Wanderers — Cardiff City · League One1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bolton Wanderers favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Cardiff City in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bolton Wanderers7 matchesCardiff City7 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored7/71 goal/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 1.57 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 1.62 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 17.6 shots/match
4.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 6.29 shots/match
52.7%Possession7/7● 65%
5.86 corners/matchCorners7/7● 8 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/710.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBolton WanderersCardiff City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headBolton Wanderers — Cardiff City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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