PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Lincoln City 1–2 Swansea City · Championship

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Swansea City won 1–2.

Shots
1310
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.490.85
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Swansea City beat Lincoln City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Lincoln City – Swansea City): shots 13–10, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.49–0.85, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lincoln City have a visible home split

weak

Lincoln City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lincoln City, Swansea City.

3.8 days ▲Rest daysLincoln City · Swansea City7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLincoln CitySwansea CityBaseline
Rest days3.8 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Swansea City have recorded the higher season possession share.

35.6%PossessionLincoln City · Swansea City● 59.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLincoln CitySwansea CityBaseline
Possession35.6%59.6%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots10 shotsLincoln City 13 shots, Swansea City 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsLincoln City 4 shots, Swansea City 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.49 xG0.85 xGLincoln City 1.49 xG, Swansea City 0.85 xG
  • Possession32%68%Lincoln City 32%, Swansea City 68%
  • Corners2 corners0 cornersLincoln City 2 corners, Swansea City 0 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls11 foulsLincoln City 12 fouls, Swansea City 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardLincoln City 2 cards, Swansea City 1 card
  • Passes242 passes570 passesLincoln City 242 passes, Swansea City 570 passes
  • Pass accuracy61.2%80.9%Lincoln City 61.2%, Swansea City 80.9%
  • Shots inside box8 shots3 shotsLincoln City 8 shots, Swansea City 3 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks4 blocksLincoln City 4 blocks, Swansea City 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves3 savesLincoln City 2 saves, Swansea City 3 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides0 offsidesLincoln City 4 offsides, Swansea City 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Elijah Just · Swansea City · 8′ · 0.01 xG · on targetBen Cabango · Swansea City · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedElijah Just · Swansea City · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarko Stamenić · Swansea City · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTom Bayliss · Lincoln City · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Coubiș · Lincoln City · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMelker Widell · Swansea City · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Ladefoged · Lincoln City · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStephen Eustaquio · Swansea City · 51′ · 0.03 xG · goalMelker Widell · Swansea City · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYunus Konak · Lincoln City · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedReeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln City · 2′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMoussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeji Elerewe · Lincoln City · 4′ · 0.05 xG · on targetReeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln City · 22′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRonald · Swansea City · 86′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFreddie Draper · Lincoln City · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedReeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln City · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTom Bayliss · Lincoln City · 70′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Ladefoged · Lincoln City · 80′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedReeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln City · 20′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 47′ · 0.61 xG · goalReeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln City · 39′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lincoln City: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.52 xG. Swansea City: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.82 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln City · 39′Moussa Kounfolo Yeo · Swansea City · 47′Stephen Eustaquio · Swansea City · 51′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lincoln City 1.52 xG · Swansea City 0.82 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Lincoln City3-4-2-1
  1. George WickensG
  2. Adam ReachD
  3. Ryley TowlerD
  4. Sonny BradleyD
  5. Dom JefferiesD
  6. Deji ElereweD
  7. Conor McGrandlesM
  8. Ivan VarfolomeevM
  9. Ben HouseF
  10. Chiedozie OgbeneF
  11. Freddie DraperF
Swansea City4-2-3-1
  1. Lawrence VigourouxG
  2. Jenson SeeltD
  3. Ben CabangoD
  4. Josh TymonD
  5. Stephen WelshD
  6. Marko StamenićM
  7. Elijah JustM
  8. Stephen EustaquioM
  9. Melker WidellF
  10. Adam IdahF
  11. Moussa Kounfolo YeoF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lincoln City favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Swansea City in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lincoln City8 matchesSwansea City8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.63 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.75 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.54 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots8/812.1 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5 shots/match
35.6%Possession8/8● 59.6%
4.13 corners/matchCorners8/84.13 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls8/89.25 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLincoln CitySwansea City
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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