PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Norwich City 3–4 Bolton Wanderers · Championship

3–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bolton Wanderers won 3–4.

Shots
108
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
0.790.68
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bolton Wanderers beat Norwich City 4–3. Recorded in this match (Norwich City – Bolton Wanderers): shots 10–8, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 0.79–0.68, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bolton Wanderers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bolton Wanderers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bolton Wanderers have a visible away split

weak

Bolton Wanderers's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots8 shotsNorwich City 10 shots, Bolton Wanderers 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsNorwich City 4 shots, Bolton Wanderers 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.79 xG0.68 xGNorwich City 0.79 xG, Bolton Wanderers 0.68 xG
  • Possession59%41%Norwich City 59%, Bolton Wanderers 41%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersNorwich City 4 corners, Bolton Wanderers 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsNorwich City 11 fouls, Bolton Wanderers 12 fouls
  • Passes458 passes329 passesNorwich City 458 passes, Bolton Wanderers 329 passes
  • Pass accuracy80.8%77.5%Norwich City 80.8%, Bolton Wanderers 77.5%
  • Shots inside box6 shots6 shotsNorwich City 6 shots, Bolton Wanderers 6 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block0 blocksNorwich City 1 block, Bolton Wanderers 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save1 saveNorwich City 1 save, Bolton Wanderers 1 save
  • Offsides8 offsides4 offsidesNorwich City 8 offsides, Bolton Wanderers 4 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Mohamed TouréGoal · Norwich City
  2. 8′Thierry GaleGoal · Bolton Wanderers
  3. 19′Ruairi McConvilleGoal · Norwich City
  4. 42′Gaizka LarrazabalGoal · Bolton Wanderers
  5. Half-time
  6. 47′Sam DalbyGoal · Bolton Wanderers
  7. 61′Jack StaceyGoal · Norwich City
  8. 72′Atsuki ItoGoal · Bolton Wanderers
  9. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 15′Norwich City · 1 player changeJovon Makama
  • 59′Norwich City · 2 player changesJacob Wright · Paris Maghoma
  • 70′Bolton Wanderers · 2 player changesAtsuki Ito · Samuel Iling Junior
  • 82′Norwich City · 1 player changeAnte Crnac
  • 83′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeXavier Simons
  • 90′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeTheo Bair

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Norwich City4-2-3-1
  1. Vladan KovačevićG
  2. Ben ChriseneD
  3. Ruairi McConvilleD
  4. José CórdobaD
  5. Kellen FisherD
  6. Pelle MattssonM
  7. Anis Ben SlimaneM
  8. Kenny McLeanM
  9. Andre BrooksF
  10. Mohamed TouréF
  11. Anthony MusabaF
Bolton Wanderers4-2-3-1
  1. Gavin BazunuG
  2. Ben DaviesD
  3. Eoin ToalD
  4. Gaizka LarrazabalD
  5. Max ConwayD
  6. Josh SheehanM
  7. Rúben RodriguesM
  8. Ethan ErhahonM
  9. Kyliane DongF
  10. Sam DalbyF
  11. Thierry GaleF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Norwich City favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Bolton Wanderers in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Norwich City8 matchesBolton Wanderers8 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match
2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.01 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots8/812.1 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/84.75 shots/match
53% ●Possession8/851.3%
4.75 corners/matchCorners8/8● 5.38 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNorwich CityBolton Wanderers
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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