PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Nice 2–1 Lille · Ligue 1

Nice

DLDL
2–1Full-time analysis

Lille

WDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Nice won 2–1.

Shots
1021
Shots on target
48
Expected goals
1.51.56
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nice beat Lille 2–1. Recorded in this match (Nice – Lille): shots 10–21, shots on target 4–8, expected goals 1.5–1.56, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Nice have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.4% ●PossessionNice · Lille47.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNiceLilleBaseline
Possession56.4%47.8%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots21 shotsNice 10 shots, Lille 21 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsNice 4 shots, Lille 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.5 xG1.56 xGNice 1.5 xG, Lille 1.56 xG
  • Possession41%59%Nice 41%, Lille 59%
  • Corners3 corners7 cornersNice 3 corners, Lille 7 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls9 foulsNice 16 fouls, Lille 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardNice 3 cards, Lille 1 card
  • Passes394 passes539 passesNice 394 passes, Lille 539 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.5%87.4%Nice 85.5%, Lille 87.4%
  • Shots inside box7 shots15 shotsNice 7 shots, Lille 15 shots
  • Blocked shots0 blocks7 blocksNice 0 blocks, Lille 7 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves7 saves3 savesNice 7 saves, Lille 3 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideNice 4 offsides, Lille 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Mohamed AbdelmonemYellow card · Nice
  2. 22′Nathan NgoyGoal · Lille
  3. 45′Xavier MandzaYellow card · Nice
  4. Half-time
  5. 57′Mohamed AmouraYellow card · Nice
  6. 67′Mohamed AmouraGoal · Nice
  7. 79′Ayase UedaGoal · Lille
  8. 90′Maurits KjaergaardYellow card · Lille
  9. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 55′Lille · 1 player changeDilane Bakwa
  • 58′Nice · 1 player changeAlidu Seidu
  • 64′Lille · 2 player changesMaurits Kjaergaard · Osame Sahraoui
  • 65′Lille · 1 player changeOlivier Giroud
  • 73′Nice · 1 player changeEverton Pereira
  • 74′Nice · 1 player changeSofiane Diop
  • 77′Nice · 1 player changeNathan N'Goumou
  • 77′Lille · 1 player changeNgal'ayel Mukau
  • 78′Nice · 1 player changeAli Abdi

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Nice3-4-2-1
  1. Yehvann DioufG
  2. Mohamed AbdelmonemD
  3. Niels NkounkouD
  4. Xavier MandzaD
  5. Youssouf NdayishimiyeD
  6. Jonathan ClaussD
  7. Axel WitselM
  8. Djibril CoulibalyM
  9. Gauthier HeinF
  10. Mohamed AmouraF
  11. Elye WahiF
Lille4-2-3-1
  1. Berke ÖzerG
  2. Nathan NgoyD
  3. Alexsandro RibeiroD
  4. Romain PerraudD
  5. Tiago SantosD
  6. Nabil BentalebM
  7. Hakon Arnar HaraldssonM
  8. Benjamin AndréM
  9. Dilane BakwaF
  10. Ayase UedaF
  11. Başar ÖnalF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nice
3Draws
1Lille
Lille — Nice · Ligue 10–0
Nice — Lille · Ligue 12–0
Lille — Nice · Ligue 12–1
Nice — Lille · Ligue 12–2
Lille — Nice · Ligue 12–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nice favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Lille in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nice5 matchesLille5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 0.8 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 1.32 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 12.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 6.4 shots/match
56.4% ●Possession5/547.8%
5.8 corners/match ●Corners5/52.8 corners/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNiceLille
CompetitionLigue 1
Head-to-headNice — Lille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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