PitchMath
League One · 2026

Luton Town 0–1 Bradford City · League One

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bradford City won 0–1.

Shots
155
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.830.29
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bradford City beat Luton Town 1–0. Recorded in this match (Luton Town – Bradford City): shots 15–5, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.83–0.29, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bradford City have a visible away split

weak

Bradford City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.75 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots6.75 shots/match10.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.71 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bradford City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bradford City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsLuton Town · Bradford City10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLuton TownBradford CityBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match10.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match10.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots5 shotsLuton Town 15 shots, Bradford City 5 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsLuton Town 3 shots, Bradford City 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.83 xG0.29 xGLuton Town 0.83 xG, Bradford City 0.29 xG
  • Possession64%36%Luton Town 64%, Bradford City 36%
  • Corners14 corners3 cornersLuton Town 14 corners, Bradford City 3 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls14 foulsLuton Town 17 fouls, Bradford City 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsLuton Town 3 cards, Bradford City 4 cards
  • Passes498 passes285 passesLuton Town 498 passes, Bradford City 285 passes
  • Pass accuracy80.7%64.6%Luton Town 80.7%, Bradford City 64.6%
  • Shots inside box8 shots4 shotsLuton Town 8 shots, Bradford City 4 shots
  • Blocked shots9 blocks0 blocksLuton Town 9 blocks, Bradford City 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves3 savesLuton Town 2 saves, Bradford City 3 saves

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 4′Bobby PointonGoal · Bradford City
  2. Half-time
  3. 46′Callum ConnollyYellow card · Bradford City
  4. 60′Daniel GoreYellow card · Luton Town
  5. 67′Antoni SarcevicYellow card · Bradford City
  6. 72′Kieran MorganYellow card · Bradford City
  7. 83′Harrison AshbyYellow card · Luton Town
  8. 90′Macauley GillespheyYellow card · Bradford City
  9. 90′Harrison AshbySecond yellow · Luton Town
  10. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 62′Bradford City · 2 player changesNick Powell · Kieran Morgan
  • 66′Luton Town · 1 player changeJordan Clark
  • 75′Luton Town · 3 player changesNahki Wells · Isaiah Jones · Jamie Donley
  • 84′Bradford City · 1 player changeMacauley Gillesphey
  • 84′Luton Town · 1 player changeGideon Kodua
  • 85′Bradford City · 1 player changeCorey O'Keeffe

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Luton Town
  1. James SheaG
  2. Hakeem OdofinD
  3. Mads AndersenD
  4. George JohnstonD
  5. Harrison AshbyD
  6. Jake RichardsM
  7. Liam WalshM
  8. Emilio LawrenceM
  9. Daniel GoreM
  10. Kasey PalmerM
  11. Callum MarshallF
Bradford City
  1. Jon McCrackenG
  2. Ibou TourayD
  3. Josh NeufvilleD
  4. Aden BaldwinD
  5. George PrattD
  6. Matthew PenningtonD
  7. Callum ConnollyM
  8. Antoni SarcevicM
  9. Jake BeesleyF
  10. Kayden JacksonF
  11. Bobby PointonF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Luton Town
0Draws
1Bradford City
Luton Town — Bradford City · League One2–1
Bradford City — Luton Town · League One2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Luton Town favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Bradford City in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Luton Town7 matchesBradford City7 matches
1.71 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71 goal/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 0.57 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.03 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots7/710.4 shots/match
4.29 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.86 shots/match
57.1% ●Possession7/749.4%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/7● 6.43 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls7/714.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLuton TownBradford City
CompetitionLeague One
Head-to-headLuton Town — Bradford City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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