PitchMath
League One · 2026

Reading 2–0 Notts County · League One

Reading

LDWWL
2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Reading won 2–0.

Shots
1712
Shots on target
72
Expected goals
2.620.59
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Reading beat Notts County 2–0. Recorded in this match (Reading – Notts County): shots 17–12, shots on target 7–2, expected goals 2.62–0.59, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Notts County's recent record differs from the season

weak

Notts County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Notts County have a visible away split

weak

Notts County's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Notts County show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Notts County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsReading · Notts County12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReadingNotts CountyBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against9.67 shots/match12 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots12 shotsReading 17 shots, Notts County 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots2 shotsReading 7 shots, Notts County 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.62 xG0.59 xGReading 2.62 xG, Notts County 0.59 xG
  • Possession48%52%Reading 48%, Notts County 52%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerReading 4 corners, Notts County 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls12 foulsReading 13 fouls, Notts County 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardReading 2 cards, Notts County 1 card
  • Passes374 passes413 passesReading 374 passes, Notts County 413 passes
  • Pass accuracy78.9%76.8%Reading 78.9%, Notts County 76.8%
  • Shots inside box12 shots3 shotsReading 12 shots, Notts County 3 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks4 blocksReading 7 blocks, Notts County 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesReading 2 saves, Notts County 5 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides0 offsidesReading 4 offsides, Notts County 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 24′Hindolo MustaphaYellow card · Notts County
  2. Half-time
  3. 49′Jack MarriottGoal · Reading
  4. 72′Jack MarriottGoal · Reading
  5. 90′Kyreece LisbieYellow card · Reading
  6. 90′Paddy LaneYellow card · Reading
  7. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 59′Notts County · 4 player changesMatt Palmer · Conor Grant · Luka Smyth · Rosaire Longelo
  • 76′Reading · 2 player changesRandell Williams · Jacob Brown
  • 76′Notts County · 1 player changeCallum Roberts
  • 90′Reading · 2 player changesDaniel Kyerewaa · Charlie Savage

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Reading4-2-3-1
  1. Joel PereiraG
  2. Udoka Godwin-MalifeD
  3. Haydon RobertsD
  4. Paudie O’ConnorD
  5. Benn WardD
  6. Andy RinomhotaM
  7. Lewis WingM
  8. George EarthyM
  9. Jack MarriottF
  10. Kyreece LisbieF
  11. Paddy LaneF

Substitutes

  • Jack Stevens
  • Conor Masterson
  • Charlie Savage
  • Daniel Kyerewaa
  • Randell Williams
  • Jamie Reid
  • Jacob Brown
Notts County3-4-2-1
  1. James BelshawG
  2. James GibbonsD
  3. Jacob BedeauD
  4. Lucas NessD
  5. Darius LipsiucD
  6. Nick TsaroullaD
  7. Jack EvansM
  8. Rory FinneranM
  9. Oliver CooperF
  10. Daniel KanuF
  11. Hindolo MustaphaF

Substitutes

  • Harry Griffiths
  • Rod McDonald
  • Rosaire Longelo
  • Conor Grant
  • Matt Palmer
  • Callum Roberts
  • Luka Smyth

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Reading favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Notts County in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Reading6 matchesNotts County7 matches
2.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/71 goal/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/71.29 goals/match
2.15 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/71.22 xG/match
17.3 shots/match ▲Shots6/712.3 shots/match
5.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/73.29 shots/match
49% ●Possession6/745.1%
5 corners/match ●Corners6/74.43 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls6/713.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReadingNotts County
CompetitionLeague One
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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