PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry City · Premier League

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Coventry City won 0–1.

Shots
2410
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.150.67
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Coventry City beat Nottingham Forest 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Coventry City): shots 24–10, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.15–0.67, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Coventry City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Coventry City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.4 shots/match ▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Coventry City10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestCoventry CityBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Coventry City have a visible away split

weak

Coventry City's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.67 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.67 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Nottingham Forest have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.2% ●PossessionNottingham Forest · Coventry City38.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestCoventry CityBaseline
Possession47.2%38.8%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots10 shotsNottingham Forest 24 shots, Coventry City 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsNottingham Forest 3 shots, Coventry City 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.15 xG0.67 xGNottingham Forest 1.15 xG, Coventry City 0.67 xG
  • Possession63%37%Nottingham Forest 63%, Coventry City 37%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersNottingham Forest 6 corners, Coventry City 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsNottingham Forest 12 fouls, Coventry City 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsNottingham Forest 2 cards, Coventry City 0 cards
  • Passes506 passes308 passesNottingham Forest 506 passes, Coventry City 308 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.6%75.7%Nottingham Forest 84.6%, Coventry City 75.7%
  • Shots inside box12 shots5 shotsNottingham Forest 12 shots, Coventry City 5 shots
  • Blocked shots12 blocks1 blockNottingham Forest 12 blocks, Coventry City 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesNottingham Forest 2 saves, Coventry City 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides2 offsidesNottingham Forest 2 offsides, Coventry City 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. Half-time
  2. 55′Jay DaSilvaGoal · Coventry City
  3. 59′Liam DelapYellow card · Nottingham Forest
  4. 90′JairYellow card · Nottingham Forest
  5. Full time
Player changes · 7grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Coventry City · 1 player changeLoum Tchaouna
  • 59′Nottingham Forest · 1 player changeIgor Jesus
  • 73′Nottingham Forest · 1 player changeChris Wood
  • 74′Coventry City · 1 player changeEllis Simms
  • 83′Nottingham Forest · 2 player changesLuca Netz · Ibrahim Sangaré
  • 90′Coventry City · 1 player changeJoel Latibeaudiere

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Nottingham Forest3-4-2-1
  1. Matz SelsG
  2. Ousmane DiomandeD
  3. Neco WilliamsD
  4. MurilloD
  5. Daniel MuñozD
  6. Ola AinaD
  7. Xaver SchlagerM
  8. James McAteeM
  9. Morgan Gibbs-WhiteF
  10. Dan NdoyeF
  11. Liam DelapF
Coventry City3-4-2-1
  1. Carl RushworthG
  2. Ethan PinnockD
  3. Jay DaSilvaD
  4. Bobby ThomasD
  5. Joel LatibeaudiereD
  6. Milan van EwijkD
  7. Matt GrimesM
  8. Frank OnyekaM
  9. Jack RudoniF
  10. Ephron Mason-ClarkF
  11. Sidiki CherifF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nottingham Forest
0Draws
1Coventry City
Nottingham Forest — Coventry City · Championship2–0
Coventry City — Nottingham Forest · Championship2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Coventry City in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest5 matchesCoventry City5 matches
0.8 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/50.97 xG/match
16.4 shots/match ▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
3.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
47.2% ●Possession5/538.8%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/5● 4 corners/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestCoventry City
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Coventry City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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