PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest won 1–2.

Shots
722
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
0.861.92
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa 2–1. Recorded in this match (Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest): shots 7–22, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 0.86–1.92, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.25 shots/match ▲ShotsAston Villa · Nottingham Forest14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots8.25 shots/match14.5 shots/match14.4 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match10.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots22 shotsAston Villa 7 shots, Nottingham Forest 22 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsAston Villa 5 shots, Nottingham Forest 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.86 xG1.92 xGAston Villa 0.86 xG, Nottingham Forest 1.92 xG
  • Possession53%47%Aston Villa 53%, Nottingham Forest 47%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerAston Villa 6 corners, Nottingham Forest 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls16 foulsAston Villa 10 fouls, Nottingham Forest 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cardsAston Villa 2 cards, Nottingham Forest 5 cards
  • Passes412 passes358 passesAston Villa 412 passes, Nottingham Forest 358 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.8%86%Aston Villa 82.8%, Nottingham Forest 86%
  • Shots inside box6 shots14 shotsAston Villa 6 shots, Nottingham Forest 14 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block3 blocksAston Villa 1 block, Nottingham Forest 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves5 savesAston Villa 5 saves, Nottingham Forest 5 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides4 offsidesAston Villa 0 offsides, Nottingham Forest 4 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

James McAtee · Nottingham Forest · 12′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRoss Barkley · Aston Villa · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLiam Delap · Nottingham Forest · 46′ · 0.02 xG · goalDan Ndoye · Nottingham Forest · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Mbaye · Aston Villa · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJames McAtee · Nottingham Forest · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Nottingham Forest · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Nottingham Forest · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedXaver Schlager · Nottingham Forest · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 23′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIbrahim Sangaré · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIan Maatsen · Aston Villa · 8′ · 0.06 xG · on targetOusmane Diomande · Nottingham Forest · 16′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Nottingham Forest · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlysson · Aston Villa · 74′ · 0.07 xG · goalNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Nottingham Forest · 35′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDaniel Muñoz · Nottingham Forest · 85′ · 0.08 xG · on targetIan Maatsen · Aston Villa · 7′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIgor Jesus · Nottingham Forest · 88′ · 0.13 xG · goalTyrone Mings · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Nottingham Forest · 59′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedVictor Lindelöf · Aston Villa · 7′ · 0.42 xG · on targetLiam Delap · Nottingham Forest · 58′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Aston Villa: 7 shots, 5 on target, 0.84 xG. Nottingham Forest: 22 shots, 7 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Alysson · Aston Villa · 74′Liam Delap · Nottingham Forest · 46′Igor Jesus · Nottingham Forest · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 0.84 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.91 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Aston Villa4-2-3-1
  1. Zion SuzukiG
  2. Matty CashD
  3. Victor LindelöfD
  4. Pau TorresD
  5. Ian MaatsenD
  6. Ross BarkleyM
  7. Boubacar KamaraM
  8. Emiliano BuendíaM
  9. John McGinnF
  10. Nicolas JacksonF
  11. George HemmingsF
Nottingham Forest3-4-2-1
  1. Matz SelsG
  2. Neco WilliamsD
  3. MurilloD
  4. JairD
  5. Daniel MuñozD
  6. Nikola MilenkovićD
  7. Xaver SchlagerM
  8. James McAteeM
  9. Morgan Gibbs-WhiteF
  10. Dan NdoyeF
  11. Liam DelapF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Aston Villa
1Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · UEFA Europa League4–0
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · UEFA Europa League1–0
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Aston Villa favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Aston Villa4 matchesNottingham Forest4 matches
0.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 1 goal/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 1 goal/match
0.81 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.38 xG/match
8.25 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 14.5 shots/match
1.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 3.5 shots/match
48% ●Possession4/443.3%
3.5 corners/match ●Corners4/42.75 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/415.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAston VillaNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headAston Villa — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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