PitchMath
League One · 2026

Notts County 2–1 Burton Albion · League One

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Notts County won 2–1.

Shots
202
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
2.290.11
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Notts County beat Burton Albion 2–1. Recorded in this match (Notts County – Burton Albion): shots 20–2, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 2.29–0.11, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Burton Albion show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Burton Albion's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsNotts County · Burton Albion8.33 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNotts CountyBurton AlbionBaseline
Shots14 shots/match8.33 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match12.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

15.3 fouls/matchFoulsNotts County · Burton Albion18.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNotts CountyBurton AlbionBaseline
Fouls15.3 fouls/match18.3 fouls/match12.7 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots2 shotsNotts County 20 shots, Burton Albion 2 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotNotts County 8 shots, Burton Albion 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.29 xG0.11 xGNotts County 2.29 xG, Burton Albion 0.11 xG
  • Possession60%40%Notts County 60%, Burton Albion 40%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerNotts County 7 corners, Burton Albion 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls22 foulsNotts County 13 fouls, Burton Albion 22 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cardsNotts County 1 card, Burton Albion 4 cards
  • Passes487 passes326 passesNotts County 487 passes, Burton Albion 326 passes
  • Pass accuracy79.9%69.3%Notts County 79.9%, Burton Albion 69.3%
  • Shots inside box16 shots1 shotNotts County 16 shots, Burton Albion 1 shot
  • Blocked shots3 blocks1 blockNotts County 3 blocks, Burton Albion 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves6 savesNotts County 0 saves, Burton Albion 6 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesNotts County 1 offside, Burton Albion 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 22′Finn DelapGoal · Burton Albion
  2. 34′Curtis TiltYellow card · Burton Albion
  3. 36′Rory FinneranYellow card · Notts County
  4. Half-time
  5. 51′Jack ArmerYellow card · Burton Albion
  6. 52′Sulyman KruballyYellow card · Burton Albion
  7. 65′George EvansYellow card · Burton Albion
  8. 78′Luka SmythGoal · Notts County
  9. 83′Curtis TiltRed card · Burton Albion
  10. 84′Luka SmythPenalty goal · Notts County
  11. Full time
Player changes · 7grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Notts County · 1 player changeLuka Smyth
  • 62′Burton Albion · 2 player changesTyrese Shade · Will Collar
  • 66′Notts County · 2 player changesConor Grant · Qamaruddin Kouhyar
  • 87′Burton Albion · 1 player changeKain Adom
  • 90′Notts County · 1 player changeIshé Samuels-Smith

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Notts County favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Burton Albion in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Notts County3 matchesBurton Albion3 matches
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/31.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
1.78 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/30.59 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots3/38.33 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match
44.3% ●Possession3/339.3%
4.33 corners/match ●Corners3/32 corners/match
15.3 fouls/matchFouls3/318.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNotts CountyBurton Albion
CompetitionLeague One
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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