PitchMath
League One · 2026

Burton Albion 4–1 AFC Wimbledon · League One

4–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Burton Albion won 4–1.

Shots
1019
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
0.931.44
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 4–1. Recorded in this match (Burton Albion – AFC Wimbledon): shots 10–19, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 0.93–1.44, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for AFC Wimbledon.

4.2 days ▲Rest daysBurton Albion · AFC Wimbledon3.24 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBurton AlbionAFC WimbledonBaseline
Rest days4.2 days3.24 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Burton Albion show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Burton Albion's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.75 shots/match ▲ShotsBurton Albion · AFC Wimbledon11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurton AlbionAFC WimbledonBaseline
Shots8.75 shots/match11.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against14.3 shots/match12 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots19 shotsBurton Albion 10 shots, AFC Wimbledon 19 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsBurton Albion 5 shots, AFC Wimbledon 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.93 xG1.44 xGBurton Albion 0.93 xG, AFC Wimbledon 1.44 xG
  • Possession50%50%Burton Albion 50%, AFC Wimbledon 50%
  • Corners4 corners7 cornersBurton Albion 4 corners, AFC Wimbledon 7 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls14 foulsBurton Albion 8 fouls, AFC Wimbledon 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardBurton Albion 1 card, AFC Wimbledon 1 card
  • Passes432 passes413 passesBurton Albion 432 passes, AFC Wimbledon 413 passes
  • Pass accuracy78%79.9%Burton Albion 78%, AFC Wimbledon 79.9%
  • Shots inside box5 shots14 shotsBurton Albion 5 shots, AFC Wimbledon 14 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks6 blocksBurton Albion 2 blocks, AFC Wimbledon 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesBurton Albion 2 saves, AFC Wimbledon 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside3 offsidesBurton Albion 1 offside, AFC Wimbledon 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 18′Jayden StockleyGoal · AFC Wimbledon
  2. 28′George EvansGoal · Burton Albion
  3. 34′Alistair SmithGoal · AFC Wimbledon
  4. Half-time
  5. 46′Charlie WebsterGoal · Burton Albion
  6. 72′Andy YiadomYellow card · AFC Wimbledon
  7. 76′Caylan VickersGoal · Burton Albion
  8. 83′Jack ArmerYellow card · Burton Albion
  9. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 61′AFC Wimbledon · 2 player changesCallum Maycock · Aron Sasu
  • 62′AFC Wimbledon · 1 player changeSteven Sessegnon
  • 65′Burton Albion · 2 player changesKain Adom · Joe Lewis
  • 81′Burton Albion · 1 player changeEmeka Adeile
  • 90′Burton Albion · 2 player changesHarvey Araujo · Zac Scutt

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Burton Albion
  1. Corey AddaiG
  2. Jack ArmerD
  3. Toby SibbickD
  4. Will CollarD
  5. Kyran LofthouseD
  6. Finn DelapD
  7. George EvansM
  8. Sulyman KruballyM
  9. Kgagelo ChaukeF
  10. Charlie WebsterF
  11. Caylan VickersF
AFC Wimbledon
  1. Joe McDonnellG
  2. Steve SeddonD
  3. Ryan JohnsonD
  4. James TilleyD
  5. Andy YiadomD
  6. Dan SweeneyD
  7. Zack NelsonM
  8. Alistair SmithM
  9. Myles HippolyteM
  10. Jayden StockleyF
  11. Donnell McNeillyF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Burton Albion
2Draws
0AFC Wimbledon
Burton Albion — AFC Wimbledon · League One1–0
AFC Wimbledon — Burton Albion · League One0–1
Burton Albion — AFC Wimbledon · League One1–1
AFC Wimbledon — Burton Albion · League One1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Burton Albion favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · AFC Wimbledon in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Burton Albion4 matchesAFC Wimbledon4 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
0.67 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 0.73 xG/match
8.75 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 11.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/42.25 shots/match
42%Possession4/4● 47.5%
2.5 corners/matchCorners4/4● 6 corners/match
15.8 fouls/matchFouls4/412.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBurton AlbionAFC Wimbledon
CompetitionLeague One
Head-to-headBurton Albion — AFC Wimbledon
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required