PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

1. FC Heidenheim 1–0 Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 1–0.

Shots
1913
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
2.350.8
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat Holstein Kiel 1–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – Holstein Kiel): shots 19–13, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 2.35–0.8, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

21 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots21 shots/match16 shots/match15.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Holstein Kiel have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.4%Possession1. FC Heidenheim · Holstein Kiel● 54.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimHolstein KielBaseline
Possession44.4%54.2%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots13 shots1. FC Heidenheim 19 shots, Holstein Kiel 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shots1. FC Heidenheim 4 shots, Holstein Kiel 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.35 xG0.8 xG1. FC Heidenheim 2.35 xG, Holstein Kiel 0.8 xG
  • Possession51%49%1. FC Heidenheim 51%, Holstein Kiel 49%
  • Corners6 corners8 corners1. FC Heidenheim 6 corners, Holstein Kiel 8 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 11 fouls, Holstein Kiel 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cards1. FC Heidenheim 1 card, Holstein Kiel 2 cards
  • Passes372 passes364 passes1. FC Heidenheim 372 passes, Holstein Kiel 364 passes
  • Pass accuracy79%79.1%1. FC Heidenheim 79%, Holstein Kiel 79.1%
  • Shots inside box12 shots7 shots1. FC Heidenheim 12 shots, Holstein Kiel 7 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks4 blocks1. FC Heidenheim 3 blocks, Holstein Kiel 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves3 saves1. FC Heidenheim 3 saves, Holstein Kiel 3 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offside1. FC Heidenheim 4 offsides, Holstein Kiel 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 38′Jonas TherkelsenYellow card · Holstein Kiel
  2. Half-time
  3. 50′Jonas TherkelsenSecond yellow · Holstein Kiel
  4. 83′Jonas FöhrenbachGoal · 1. FC Heidenheim
  5. 86′Mikkel KaufmannYellow card · 1. FC Heidenheim
  6. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′1. FC Heidenheim · 2 player changesMikkel Kaufmann · Christian Conteh
  • 57′Holstein Kiel · 1 player changeNoah Madsen
  • 76′Holstein Kiel · 2 player changesJohn Tolkin · Gyan de Regt
  • 76′1. FC Heidenheim · 1 player changeYannik Wagner
  • 81′1. FC Heidenheim · 2 player changesTim Siersleben · Paul Hennrich
  • 83′Holstein Kiel · 1 player changeTill Wiese

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

1. FC Heidenheim
  1. Thomas DähneG
  2. Marnon BuschD
  3. Patrick MainkaD
  4. Jonas FöhrenbachD
  5. Michael HeuleD
  6. Jan SchöppnerM
  7. Mathias HonsakM
  8. Oualid MhamdiM
  9. Marcel CostlyM
  10. Julian NiehuesF
  11. Alessandro VogtF
Holstein Kiel
  1. Timon WeinerG
  2. Ivan NekićD
  3. David ZecD
  4. Hiroki SekineD
  5. Leon ParduziD
  6. Guillermo BalziM
  7. Jonas TherkelsenM
  8. Adrián KaprálikM
  9. Ikem UgohM
  10. Jonas MeffertM
  11. Phil HarresF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Heidenheim
1Draws
2Holstein Kiel
1. FC Heidenheim — Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga3–1
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Heidenheim — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga3–0
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga3–1
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 5

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim5 matchesHolstein Kiel5 matches
2.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 1.8 goals/match
1.9 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.42 xG/match
16 shots/match ▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match
5.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
44.4%Possession5/5● 54.2%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/5● 6 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimHolstein Kiel
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — Holstein Kiel
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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