PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

Holstein Kiel 1–1 VfL Osnabrück · 2. Bundesliga

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück drew 1–1.

Shots
1814
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
2.11.64
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Holstein Kiel and VfL Osnabrück drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – VfL Osnabrück): shots 18–14, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 2.1–1.64, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Osnabrück's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Osnabrück's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Holstein Kiel have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.8% ●PossessionHolstein Kiel · VfL Osnabrück41.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHolstein KielVfL OsnabrückBaseline
Possession54.8%41.8%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots14 shotsHolstein Kiel 18 shots, VfL Osnabrück 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsHolstein Kiel 4 shots, VfL Osnabrück 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.1 xG1.64 xGHolstein Kiel 2.1 xG, VfL Osnabrück 1.64 xG
  • Possession58%42%Holstein Kiel 58%, VfL Osnabrück 42%
  • Corners10 corners1 cornerHolstein Kiel 10 corners, VfL Osnabrück 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls15 foulsHolstein Kiel 11 fouls, VfL Osnabrück 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsHolstein Kiel 4 cards, VfL Osnabrück 3 cards
  • Passes527 passes388 passesHolstein Kiel 527 passes, VfL Osnabrück 388 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.2%74.7%Holstein Kiel 85.2%, VfL Osnabrück 74.7%
  • Shots inside box12 shots9 shotsHolstein Kiel 12 shots, VfL Osnabrück 9 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks5 blocksHolstein Kiel 6 blocks, VfL Osnabrück 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves3 savesHolstein Kiel 3 saves, VfL Osnabrück 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesHolstein Kiel 1 offside, VfL Osnabrück 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 1′Robin FabinskiYellow card · VfL Osnabrück
  2. 9′Jonathan GómezYellow card · VfL Osnabrück
  3. 10′David ZecYellow card · Holstein Kiel
  4. 19′Fridolin WagnerYellow card · VfL Osnabrück
  5. 29′Hiroki SekineYellow card · Holstein Kiel
  6. 45′Phil HarresPenalty goal · Holstein Kiel
  7. Half-time
  8. 70′Noah MadsenYellow card · Holstein Kiel
  9. 72′Hiroki SekineGoal · Holstein Kiel
  10. 74′David ZecSecond yellow · Holstein Kiel
  11. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 63′VfL Osnabrück · 1 player changeDaniel-Kofi Kyereh
  • 69′Holstein Kiel · 1 player changeSteven Skrzybski
  • 73′VfL Osnabrück · 2 player changesKonrad Faber · Luca Raimund
  • 87′VfL Osnabrück · 2 player changesLeon Opitz · Joel Abu Hanna
  • 89′Holstein Kiel · 2 player changesGiorgi Kvilitaia · Ikem Ugoh

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Holstein Kiel
  1. Timon WeinerG
  2. Noah MadsenD
  3. David ZecD
  4. Hiroki SekineD
  5. Leon ParduziD
  6. Guillermo BalziM
  7. Gyan de RegtM
  8. Kasper DavidsenM
  9. Adrián KaprálikM
  10. Jonas MeffertM
  11. Phil HarresF
VfL Osnabrück
  1. Jonas KrumreyG
  2. Jannik MüllerD
  3. Niklas WiemannD
  4. Robin FabinskiD
  5. Patrick KammerbauerD
  6. Jonathan GómezD
  7. Bjarke JacobsenM
  8. Fridolin WagnerM
  9. Robin MeißnerF
  10. Adrian BeckF
  11. Bernd RiesselmannF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Holstein Kiel
1Draws
0VfL Osnabrück
Holstein Kiel — VfL Osnabrück · 2. Bundesliga4–0
VfL Osnabrück — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · VfL Osnabrück in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel6 matchesVfL Osnabrück6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
1.53 xG/matchExpected goals6/61.55 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots6/614.3 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 5 shots/match
54.8% ●Possession6/641.8%
6.67 corners/match ●Corners6/63.33 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls6/611.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHolstein KielVfL Osnabrück
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-headHolstein Kiel — VfL Osnabrück
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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